Crazy Races – The Dirty Diamonds
This debt ceiling thing is crazy. Virtually everyone agrees it would be total catastrophe to not increase the debt ceiling. I get that it’s a contentious issue given the broader milieu of spending concern and so on. And it’s clearly a political cudgel. The out party has traditionally used the vote to draw a distinction – some enterprising folks vote against the increase in order to make a political point, etc.
Obama himself did this during the Bush administration. It’s stupid, but it’s just part of politics. I get all that.
And maybe that’s all that will end up happening here. The flames will rise a little higher because of the specific context, but ultimately it will stay fully constrained. The Democrats in the House will get a reasonable number of Republicans who will provide cover to their more angry colleagues, and all the sturm und drang will turn out to have been mere show. That’s quite possible. I hope that’s what happens.
I’m worried, though, that Boehner will be forced to hew to the line imposed by the more vigorous wing of the Party, and will simply refuse to allow a vote on the debt ceiling without serious concessions.
The question, of course, is why there must be concessions in order to pass something that virtually everyone agrees is 100% necessary. It would be the equivalent of demanding concessions from your fellow passengers to not drive directly into a brick wall. Sure, they don’t want to die, but presumably you don’t either. The language of ‘concessions’ usually implies deal-making and compromise, where in order to get one thing you make a concession on another. In this case, everyone already agrees on the appropriate policy.
The troublesome thing is that I do see the Republicans as more willing to drive into this particular brick wall. But even that isn’t quite right. ‘Willing’ implies some clear decisive agency. And I don’t think that’s what’s going on here. The problem is that the Republicans are extremely divided, in a way that makes crisis more likely. For one subset of them (and a reasonably hefty one) the prospect of debt default is just not that scary. The potential gains to be had for their specific agenda MATTERS to them more than the consequences. Even further, the political costs of potentially being portrayed as endangering the economy for their particular goals don’t seem to scare them very much.
It’s a deadly mix. I think it’s almost certainly a winning position for the Democrats to simply hold the line and say: “look, we all know the debt ceiling must be raised. It’s not a partisan issue. We just need to do it. If you want to get your other agenda, feel free to bring it up independently and we can debate it.” But what if I’m wrong? Or, even if it is a winning issue in itself, what if the Republican base is really willing to shoot the country in the foot to make their point? A winning political issue combined with serious economic damage to the nation is a) bad for Obama’s political chances – the president gets the blame for a bad economy even if it’s not his fault and b) terrible for the nation.
The game theory is icky here, because Obama and the Dems can’t really anticipate dealing with a rational decision-maker. Boehner on his own would be fine in this case. But Boehner is representing a schizophrenic caucus.
It’s an unfortunate truth that when you’re bargaining with the potentially crazy, it’s far less risky to simply cave a little bit, give them some of what they want, even if it makes no actual sense.
I fear that is what is going to happen.