Where Have All the Rude Boys Gone? – Ted Leo and the Pharmacists
Rudie Can’t Fail – The Clash
Let’s talk Republican presidential candidates today. In particular I want to focus on how the Conventional Wisdom might just be wrong. You often hear that it’s really a 3-horse race, with the “first-tier” candidates duking it out for the nomination. I don’t think that’s wrong. There’s still a chance for a true conservative challenger to stake out a place to the Right of these guys, but I don’t think the odds are high.
Of the three, McCain is the clear frontrunner by most accounts, in large part because of an awareness about the Republican Party tends to go about nominating a candidate. In sharp contrast with the Democrats, who often leave ample room for virtual unknowns (Bill Clinton in 1992 and Howard Dean in 2004, to name a couple examples) to rise to the top, the GOP tend to quickly collapse down. Once the “establishment” choice is made, an overwhelming number of primary voters fall in line behind him.
This is what happened in 2000, as McCain’s upstart candidacy was thumped by the old-guard side of the party and Bush cruised to victory. Dole was nominated in 1996 in large part because people perceived it as being “his turn” after paying his dues over the years. It’s not set in stone, but it’s a good rule.
I still think there’s a strong chance this will happen, but the more I read the more I’m convinced that Rudy Giuliani has a very good chance of beating McCain.
There are three factors at work with the Far Right. First, they’ve had a taste of real power these last six years, and they like it. Second, the memory of the Clinton interregnum leaves a foul taste in their mouths. Third, they’ve come to realize that it may be just as good to have politicians desperate to burnish their conservative credentials as it is to have a “true” conservative. The long and short of it is that I think the conservative wing of the Party wants to win more than they care about the personal values of a particular candidate. And this is especially true when said candidate’s personal morals will have little or no effect on the way he would govern. They’re not going to sit home – they’re going to vote in huge numbers and use that fact to force a supposedly “moderate” candidate to kowtow to their demands.
If I’m right about this, it doesn’t take much of a stretch to understand why they might fall in line behind Giuliani. You always hear that he’ll never make it through the primaries because of his marital issues, his pro-choice stance, his tolerance of gays. And yes, those are certainly major problems for someone seeking the Republican nomination. But McCain and Romney have variations on the same skeletons, which means none of the big three will really satisfy the conservative base. These guys are all panderers and the right wing knows it. So the real question is: which kind of panderer do they want? And frankly, McCain and Romney’s attempts to backtrack are a lot less appealing than Giuliani’s. McCain’s whole appeal is that he’s a rogue, a maverick, so when he goes back on his past statements it’s a betrayal of his whole ethos. As for Romney, he has virtually nothing going for him except his supposed conservative status, so all the evidence of tolerance for abortion, gay rights, etc. seriously remove the luster from his campaign.
Giuliani, on the other hand, has a strong campaign built around terrorism, a strong executive, the ability to get things done, and set this country straight. He is “America’s Mayor,” an almost mythic figure with tremendous crossover appeal to the independents and moderate Democrats. Moreover, because of all that, he knows the crucial thing for his chances is support from conservatives. Which means he’s plenty-willing to say he’ll appoint more Scalias and Thomases to the Supreme Court, that he will work to support conservative policies. He’s not going to pretend he’s a social conservative – he’s just going to be up front about the fact that he’s perfectly willing to sell out to the social conservatives in exchange for power. And they’ll yum it up.
For an even more extreme variation on this point, check out Matt Stoller over at MyDD, who says: “The right-wing base is entirely unprincipled, subduing any concerns they might have over political issues to a sheer authoritarian impulse.” He closes with a point that is cutting and seldom understood: “And please please please stop assuming that they think like we do. They don’t. Right-wingers are right-wingers for a reason. If they thought like us they’d be Democrats.”
Giuliani is currently trouncing the competition (on both sides) in national polls. If he does manage to clear the primaries, he’ll be a serious force in the national election, in large part because a large number of Democrats and Independents will be enticed by this “moderate” Republican candidate.
This is the scary part, because all of those moderate beliefs will be unlikely to translate into moderate governing policies, moderate court appointments, or moderate foreign policy. The last, in particular, is the most scary. If you searched high and low, it would be tough to find a legitimate political candidate more enthralled with unitary executive power than Giuliani. Don’t believe me? Check out this piece by Cintra Wilson at Salon. And for a little more reading on the subject, Glenn Greenwald and digby chime in.
I wouldn’t bet on a Giuliani presidency at this point, but I would be hesitant to bet against it, too. Which really just means that we’ve got our work cut out for us to tear down the mythos, and put him in the hot seat early so that his infamous temper can get him in trouble.
Update: On Jeff’s good advice, one more song to really drive home my feelings. Especially the part starting at about 1:00…
Ska Sucks – Propagandhi