I want to offer some vaccine optimism. I see a lot of negative feelings out there, and I understand them. This has been a terrible year, and it sometimes feels like even the good news is drowned by the never-ending tidal waves of bad news. But it’s worth understanding just how good our trajectory is, compared to where we could be.
We have vaccines long before we could have reasonably expected them, they are far more effective than we could have reasonably hoped, and they’re being distributed at a decent (though not great) pace. There’s every reason to think the world could be back to a reasonable approximation of normal by the end of summer. If we can buckle down and stay safe for just a few more months, things are going to start getting massively better.
The vaccines are near-miracles
It has been almost exactly one year since COVID hit the US and we have not only created a vaccine, we have already distributed it to 20 million people. This is absolutely unprecedented, and far faster than all the experts expected last spring.
And the vaccines themselves are incredibly effective. They almost completely eliminate the risk of catching COVID, and for all practical purposes they completely eliminate the risk of a serious case. We don’t know for sure that the vaccine prevents one from being a carrier—passing it along without catching it yourself—but the experts think this is extremely unlikely.
These vaccines are not quite miracles, but they’re the next best thing. Once we get to herd immunity levels, things will be able to go back to normal. And even before then, we’ll start massively driving down rates of transmission and cutting into these absolutely horrifying hospitalization and death numbers.
Vaccine distribution is going okay
Of course, there is a lot of negative news about the rates of vaccine dispersal. But it’s worth putting it into context. I’ve heard a lot of people who think that the program has been a disaster because ‘we were promised 20 million doses by the end of 2020.’ Obviously that didn’t come close to proving true. But the important thing to remember about that promise is that the people who made it are huge liars who lie about everything all the time. It was never realistic! The far more realistic promise of 100 million doses in the first 100 days of Biden’s administration is not only achievable, we will likely blow past it.
You will also hear people say things like: ‘at the current pace it will take a full year or more to vaccinate everyone.’ That’s true, but not very informative. The ‘current pace’ changes every day as distribution ramps up. It took 3 weeks to give out the first 5 million doses. But it only took 7 days for the next five million, 6 days for the next five, and only 4 days for the most recent five. We won’t get endless acceleration, but we certainly shouldn’t expect the current rate to be the plateau. And things will only get better when the Johnson & Johnson vaccine (which only takes one shot) is available.
Light at the end of the tunnel means we need to double down in the meantime
None of this is a reason to be satisfied. We can and should invest way more in the vaccine program. Every minute of delay means more people getting this virus and more people dying.
But there really is light at the end of the tunnel. By April, we should expect a fifth of the country to be vaccinated, with another fifth entering the pipeline. A lot of people will be inoculated, and everyone else will be a lot safer.
In the meantime, we really REALLY need to buckle down and stay safe. There’s light at the end of the tunnel but that doesn’t change the fact that we’re currently in the middle of the worst stage of the pandemic, with hundreds of thousands of infections, and several thousand deaths, every day. And the newer, much more contagious strain is starting to spread. This strain, along with the scope of the current breakout, means a lot of stuff that was safe enough to justify the risk a few months ago is not safe anymore.
Folks have put up with a lot over the past ten months. It’s been an incredible collective effort to protect each other. And I know it’s wearing thin. A lot of people are struggling. But we’re close. We aren’t going to have to live like this forever. It’s really just another few months before the corner will truly be turned.
So please please please consider the following recommendations:
- Avoid any situation where you have to be indoors with other people. Even if you’re distanced, even if you’re masked. In three months, it will be pretty safe. Right now, it’s really not. If you absolutely can’t avoid going somewhere, try to limit your time. Every little bit makes a difference to reduce the risk.
- Get better masks. Cloth masks are better than nothing, but they really don’t do enough. If you can afford it, get yourself some N95 or KF94 masks. If not, layering masks helps a lot.
- Be careful outside. The newer strain is more easily transmitted outdoors. In general, outdoors activity is still pretty safe, but it’s not nearly as safe as it used to be. Keep your distance, wear a mask.