Yes, another political post. Tomorrow is the Super Tuesday to end all Super Tuesdays, so I don’t feel too bad about it. For a political junkie, this has been the most fascinating 6 weeks I’ve ever seen. Results wildly out of line with the polls, huge lead changes, the death of “momentum” as a meaningful gauge of a candidate’s chances, debates more wonkish than I’ve ever seen, and two candidates I’m super enthusiastic about…
And that’s just on the Democratic side. With the Republicans we’ve got Giuliani’s 50 million dollar delegate, Huckabee’s shock win in Iowa and all-too-predictable collapse, Romney remembering too late that he had a far better case as a smart business guy than he ever did as the cultural warrior, and the resurgence of McCain (which I’m not enthusiastic about in a strategic sense, but which does make me feel smart for predicting that he would win the nomination way back in November when he looked DOA).
Anyways, I got an e-mail today from a friend in California leaning toward Hillary asking me to make the case for Obama. I ended up with a fairly lengthy response and figured it wouldn’t hurt to post it here. Yesterday I made the emotional case. This is the strategic one:
1. I think they would be very similar in terms of policy. I think Hillary is a little better on health care, but I think they both would work hard to get something good done. On almost everything else, I find it hard to see a whole lot of daylight between them. Except…
2. Foreign policy. I think Obama is better here. Iraq isn’t a deal-breaker for me, but she did make the wrong call on an issue of tremendous importance.
Beyond that, Obama has people that I like a lot more working for him on this stuff. Zbigniew Brzezinski, who I really like. Samantha Power who is one of the people I most respect in the world on human rights/security stuff. I think he would make a real break with not just Bush but with the foreign policy stuff I didn’t like about Bill Clinton, too. Basically, he’d make proliferation a major issue, would focus on the element of a moral obligation in ethnic conflict, global poverty, etc. I think Hillary probably would be good on that stuff, too – I just don’t think it would get the front-and-center treatment it deserves.
I support caution, but I think it can too often be an excuse to not lead on some of this stuff. I just see her as more willing to accept that framing of some issues as too politically risky to touch, where Obama might be more willing to point out the elephant in the room (see the fight last summer about even talking to rogue states – where the foreign policy consensus is beyond stupid).
3. Governing majorities. I think since they’re so similar the big question is whether they can get the support necessary to accomplish the agenda. I think Obama has a major advantage here for three reasons.
a. People like him. I know it’s not really fair, and a big part of why people hate Hillary is because she’s a woman, but there’s still something to be said for someone who will be able to peel off some moderate Republicans in Congress. I’m not sure that could ever happen with her on big issues. Even if they agree, they would face serious backlash for going along with Hillary.
b. More importantly, I think his schtick will be really helpful on this front. Post-partisanship is a great way of framing stuff in a country full of people who are pretty liberal on most questions but who hate the term “liberal.” It’s the mirror image of Reagan, who tricked people into thinking they were more conservative than they really are. Obama creates a narrative that lets people support the liberal stuff they believe in without the pejorative baggage of the 80s and 90s.
c. Related to the two above…if those turn out to be true to any meaningful degree, it’s possible (not probable, but there’s a chance) that an Obama election could be seriously transformative. If he gets a bunch of independents to align with the Democrats or gets a ton of people super-motivated, his coattails could be HUGE. Hillary could very easily win 53/47, but it would be in a race with vituperative rhetoric and big fundraising for the GOP. No matter how perfectly things break, I can’t see her getting much more than that. But if things break right for Obama we could be looking at an electoral landslide, 56/57 percent of the vote. And it wouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility to imagine 60 seats in the Senate.
The short version: both can win, but only Obama can win in a blowout. And that could be the difference maker on health care and a bunch of other stuff. If the blue team has those seats, we’ll be able to push an agenda that WE want with a huge mandate. And if the Republicans stonewall, the public will blame them. That’s why the policy differences matter a little less to me. I think this is more than any election since I’ve been alive more about what kind of country we want this to be than it is about who will implement which policies.
Two final points, which may be somewhat duplicative, but which I’ll give their own numbers
4. It really scares me to imagine Hillary running against McCain. Her wedge against Obama is “experience” and “ready from day one” and all that, but none of that stuff will fly against him. He’s got more experience, more foreign policy cred, a better “tough guy” image, etc. Whereas Obama can run the same campaign, but with even better leverage. He can go after McCain all day on Iraq in a way that Hillary can’t. An he can cut into McCain’s one big strength – his appeal with independents – in a way that Hillary really can’t.
Plus, I’m really terrified of the scenario where 527s are running vicious attack ads on Hillary while McCain gets to pretend to be above the fray. I mean, sure, they’ll do that against Obama too. I just think that since a major part of his campaign is about why stuff like that sucks, people will be more likely to hold McCain accountable (same way Hillary ended up being hurt by going negative in South Carolina).
5. The more people see of Obama, the more they like him. He’s trailed in national polls the whole way, but the more he gets to do rallies, run ads, talk to people, etc. the better his numbers get. I think it’s telling that Feb 5th can’t come fast enough for Clinton, and that Obama would run away with it if he got another few weeks. There aren’t all that many people who will get more fired up about Hillary than they are right now, but there are a lot of people who can get way more excited about Obama. I mean, he raised $30 million just in January (which is close to breaking the QUARTERLY fundraising record), and a lot of that is small donations from people who can give more. Clinton has a much higher percentage of her contributions as maxed-out donations from people who can’t give anything more.
Okay, all that said…Hillary is a great, great candidate. I would LOVE for her to be president. And there are plenty of counter-arguments to be made against the stuff I’m saying here. I just see it as a situation where Obama might be a once-in-a-generation chance for a whole lot of stuff to coalesce into an election that changes the whole ballgame. No guarantees it’ll happen, but there will never be a better time to take the chance and bet on a real transformation.
Landslide – Smashing Pumpkins
(And yes, I am very much a product of my generation in that I actually prefer the Pumpkins cover over the original)