I haven’t been writing much about politics lately, because, well…it doesn’t seem like there’s actually that much to say. We’re in a holding pattern for the next week (less than a week!!!), and even when Obama is actually inaugurated, there’s still going to be some time before anything happens.
On the whole, I’m pretty satisfied with the transition. As I’ve said before, I wish it could have been expedited, but there’s not much that can be done about that short of amending the Constitution, so…
For the most part, qualified people are getting appointed. The “problems” for the transition have been pretty minuscule, especially when considered in relation to the actual problems facing the nation. Compared to a collapsing financial sector, two wars going nowhere fast, lack of health care, a warming planet, etc. I have a hard time getting worked up about Diane Feinstein being angry over whether she was consulted before the CIA director was announced.
And I’ve said my piece about the Burris thing, but I can’t for the life of me figure out why it’s supposed to be some sort of big problem for Obama. The guy’s going to get to be a Senator for two years. The conditions surrounding it are frustrating for those who believe in the spirit of the law, but if he wants to have ANY chance of getting re-elected he will vote exactly as Durbin and Obama tell him to. So it’s not really a political problem.
Stimulus is the big deal right now. I don’t have the economic chops to weigh in on exactly how big it ought to be. But as a political analyst, I’m willing to say that I think there’s something to the strategy Obama is deploying. Remember that less than a month ago there was talk about the Republicans freaking out over a big deal. Now, on the even of the inaguration, we’re talking about $800 billion as if it’s the absolute bare minimum. There’s virtually no talk of going below Obama’s asking price – the only question is how much more will get added by Congress. Nate Silver rather cleverly suggests he’s going for a Price is Right negotiating strategy.
I think that’s wise. And (assuming it actually works) it’s another good demonstration of how Obama is very good at combining an (almost certainly genuine) attitude of consideration and deliberation with tactics of political framing. He submitted his own stimulus plan to Congress but explicitly acknowledged that a) it was not set in stone and b) would most likely be expanded by the legislature. So when Democrats raised objections, he incorporated some of them. And even more, he sent a message that while he may have the political capital to ram something through, he is going to make an effort to preserve a form of political debate where getting something that lots of people can agree on still matters. If only because it means that all the relevant actors feel like they have a strake in the final bill.
Of course, we don’t even know how it will turn out, much less how the counterfactual world where he opened the bidding with a plan that would have made the Krugmans of the world happy. Maybe the latter tactic would have worked better. For my money though (and, of course, a vanishingly small part of the stimulus will actually be my money), I like seeing a world where the bargaining in Congress is between pragmatic progressivism and its even more radical elements. That this is happening without making it seem like GOP voices are shut out is even better.
Hopefully the end result is a stimulus bill that goes further left than Obama initially proposed. That would be a sign of many good things. It would show that Obama really does care about soliticing input. It would be good for the simple reason that it would probably do more to help the economy. And finally, it would show that an Obama presidency might (just might) actually be about improving the world, not about executive egos.
If this really is a tactic, to submit something less than he might really want, and to let Congress take some ownership over the process, that would be a welcome change. It could show that he doesn’t need to exert totalitarian control over things, and could build some goodwill to get the rest of the (very important) agenda rolling.
Ultimately, on stimulus, health care, energy, and the like there is no single perfect idea or strategy. And even if some are better than others, the real hump is getting past 25% solutions. If Obama is willing to compromise on the details in order to get the general principle locked into place, that’s a trade I’ll take 1o times out of 10.
We’ll have to see.
In the meantime, here’s a track that got a lot of blog love in the 2008 lists, and which has been growing on me steadily for the past few weeks. It’s airy and warm and friendly – just the sort of thing that can lighten your mood when facing the seemingly intractable problems of the world at large.
Collapsing At Your Doorstep – Air France