Most awkward headline of the week: Vitter Blows Top at Airport. I’ll bet he did. But actually, the story is pretty funny even without the sexual innuendo. It’s also pretty depressing that this guy is almost certainly going to get re-elected, too.
Elsewhere, Jason Zengerle mentions that rumors that Arlen Specter (Republican Senator of Pennsylvania, in tremendous danger of losing his seat) might switch parties, and asks why Democrats would want him. Two reasons. First, it turns out that 60 votes might very well be as important a milestone as people were saying (and which I argued against, BTW). The Republicans on stimulus were incredibly committed to obstruction. And on less high-profile issues they appear fully willing to filibuster across the board. Which means that getting Specter as a reliable Democratic vote, rather than having him be a vote they have to accomodate in order to pick off. Second, while it’s true that Specter-as-Democrat might not be the strongest guy the Democrats could run, there is something to be said for the importance of the next two years. It’s the beginning of the Obama term. It’s when health care, energy, education, etc. are all likely to come up. It may very well be worth it to get a reliable vote now even if it means risking a weaker candidate in 2010.
There’s another element here. For the most part politicians will gravitate toward the ideology of their consituents and their parties. There’s every chance that if Specter switched parties, he’d pretty quickly move left and begin representing the will of his new caucus. Basically, there’s every reason to believe that switching parties wouldn’t be merely a cosmetic change, but would free him (or push him) quite a bit farther to the left. I mean, if he wanted to win in 2010 after selling out the Republicans, he’d need to get some serious goodwill from the Democrats, which is not going to be won by fighting with Obama.
Jeffords followed this path. Once he left the Republican Party, he started voting as a very reliable Democrat. A lot of it depends on Specter himself of course, but I think if there’s any chance of this happening, it’ll be because he’s made the calculation that at Democrat is going to win in 2010 and it might as well be him. If he switched and then continued to obstruct, he would have no allies and would almost certainly lose. I think he would have to calculate that the only path to victory in that world is to become a gung-ho Democrat.
Anyways, I think it’s all quite unlikely. But a little speculation doesn’t hurt (unless it’s in the real estate market).