Heartache With Hard Work

I did a much better job predicting results today. Got Argentina exactly right, predicted an easy France victory, and had the third exactly right until literally the final kick of the game. I’m still underestimating the number of goals, though. What a tournament this has been! And still no draws…

Switzerland 2 – 1 Ecuador

For the first 92 minutes, this was the most boring match of the Cup so far. Ecuador got a goal at about 20 minutes, thanks to some terrible…well…defending is too kind a word. Did everyone in the world forget how to defend set pieces in the last week? Because Switzerland equalized with their own incredibly straightforward play: free kick to the head of the effectively-unmarked guy right in front of the goal. In a tournament with some lovely goals, these were not. And after that, not a lot. There were a couple decent penalty shouts and a Swiss goal that was ruled out erroneously for being offside (though it was much closer than some of the other errors that have been made so bothers me less). But the last 25 minutes were terribly dull for the most part. It kind of looked like both teams had placed bets on it being a draw and were actively trying to NOT score. But then in the final minute Ecuador spurned a glorious chance, lost the ball, and a lovely Swiss counter attack raced the other way and won the game. Literally the last kick of the game went into the back of Ecuador’s net. So: relatively boring game, incredibly exciting finish. And once again, the team that conceded first came back to win.

France 3 – 0 Honduras

There has been so much beautiful football in this tournament, but you always want a little diversity right? So we’ve thankfully got Honduras who has as much interest in kicking their opposition as they do in kicking the ball. They played half the game with 10 men and could easily have had two or three more sent off. It’s pretty hard to get me to root for France and against CONCACAF, but after about 20 minutes I was firmly in the French tank. At least they showed up to play the game. I don’t know that this game tells us much about how they’ll do against actual football teams, but it’s certainly better than anything they did four years ago. The second goal was certified by the much-discussed goal-line technology. And it was actually a GREAT example since even the video replay was inconclusive. It’s precisely what we need technology for and it rendered its verdict very quickly. Good on them.

Argentina 2 – 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina

Argentina failed to really impress but got three points from the second-best team in the group and are now almost certain to take first place. They got a somewhat lucky own goal very early, but other than that there wasn’t much to separate them and B&H. They were very flat and stilted. Messi gave the ball away more in that half than he sometimes does in a full month of games. I think a big part of it was the formation. The 5-3-2 REALLY wasn’t working. They weren’t taking advantage of the width and it was keeping Messi isolated.

In the second half, they still weren’t at their best, but were a lot better. Particularly in the 15-20 minutes following Messi’s goal, they looked like the Argentina side that I picked to win the tournament. Speaking of which, what a vintage Messi goal. His control of the ball, his balance, his pace, his awareness of defending players and the goal…just brilliant. All in all, it wasn’t a particularly great game for him, but it was good enough. Elsewhere, Di Maria looked really abject. There didn’t seem to be anything wrong with him; he just couldn’t string together a pass to save his life. But he was incredibly good to close out the year with Madrid, so I don’t see any reason to expect another poor performance like that. If he plays better, it’ll help them a lot.

On the other side of things, I liked a lot of what I saw from B&H. They probably waited too long to bring on their attacking lineup, but they bossed the midfield for long stretches. I still think they’re a pretty solid bet to take second in the group.

Predictions for tomorrow:

• Germany 3 – 2 Portugal
• Iran 1 – 1 Nigeria
• Ghana 2 – 1 United States

I had Germany-Portugal as a goalfest before I knew that this was going to be such a high scoring tournament. So it’ll probably be our first 0-0. I have no idea about the second game. Nigeria looked pretty bad in a pre-tournament friendly against the US, but who knows. And Iran sounds like they might be a bit of a reprise of Honduras. Hope not. As for the last game, well, I’ve said what I can say about the US. There’s a lot to like about this group of players but I just don’t think we’re quite there yet. If I’m wrong, I’ll certainly be happy.

Four more very exciting games. This has been one heck of a tournament so far. No draws in eight games, tons of goals pouring in, some great skill on display, upsets, great goals, and what is almost certainly the worst corner kick in the history of the World Cup. It’s been a lot of fun.

Colombia 3 – 0 Greece

They won by three goals but didn’t really look all that impressive. They got their early goal and held on for the rest of the match reasonably well. But they gave up a lot more good opportunities to Greece than I think they would have liked. A better passing team would have had a lot of luck slicing through their backline. As for Greece, I was pleasantly not irritated by them. Maybe it’s because they went behind so early and had to chase the game, but they actually tried to play football – rather than hunkering down in a concrete shelter. I can honestly see any of the teams in this group winning against any of the others. But obviously Colombia and Ivory Coast have a huge advantage at this point so are clear favorites to go through.

Uruguay 1 – 3 Costa Rica

What a game!  I was really not too impressed with Costa Rica the couple of times I watched them in qualifying, but the team that played today was great. They clearly didn’t have as much skill on the ball as Uruguay, but more than made up for it with clever runs, general intensity, and aggressiveness in the attack. Joel Campbell had a great game and was a major handful. Uruguay, meanwhile, looked pretty poor without Suarez. They played a toothless 4-4-2 and seemed at a loss to open up space in front of the goal. 3-1 is possibly a tiny bit flattering to Costa Rica, but I think they clearly deserved the three points. While I still would bet on Italy-England advancing from this group, getting three points in the bank is a HUGE advantage. If they can play this well again, they will have a great shot of advancing from a group where I thought they’d get 0 points.

England 1 – 2 Italy

Meet the new England, same as the old England. For about 40 minutes they seemed to be something genuinely new. They were full of pace and Italy seemed totally unable to handle their lightning attacks down the right side. Sterling, Welbeck, and Sturridge were all linking up wonderfully with Glen Johnson bombing forward. Basically EVERY attack was down that channel, and even though it was obvious what they were doing, Italy didn’t seem to have an answer. Meanwhile, Wayne Rooney was wandering around in circles on the other side, doing nothing of any use. Of course, their goal came from the other side, thanks to a delicious cross from Rooney. It suggested that they could exploit both sides and really stretch the Italian defense. I thought they had every chance to win the game at that point.

But instead of building on their goal, they basically set up shop to close out the half and the team who emerged in the second half was totally zombified. Instead of looking exciting as they attacked down the wings, they looked lost. Once Italy scored their second, they basically stopped trying to play and just defended deep for the entire rest of the game. And England had absolutely nothing to say about it. I honestly can’t think of a single promising attack that came through the center of the pitch. All they could do was pass to the wing, run toward the touchline and then a) try to dribble past a mass of defenders and concede possession or b) tap a weak cross into the middle that was easily cleared. It was wretched. And was precisely the sort of clueless, tactically inept, boring stuff that you’d expect from a classic England team. It’s like they had never considered the possibility that Italy might defend deep and were utterly bewildered by the idea.

I said this in my preview and I’ll say it again: Rooney is a problem.  I really think he needs to be dropped. He still has flashes of brilliance but they’re getting more and more rare – and are totally non-existent in a rather large set of World Cup matches at this point. And he doesn’t work in their best system. At all. Apart from that one cross, he did nothing today. Well, apart from taking the single worst corner kick in history.

Oh, and I have a serious crush on Andrea Pirlo. Check out the slice he put on that free kick that hit the bar. Insane.  And that dummy to set up the first goal. Wonderful. He’s so dreamy.

Ivory Coast 2 – 1 Japan

I thought Japan looked pretty good while they were leading. Despite an obvious disadvantage in physicality, they managed to keep control of the midfield reasonably well, and were a lot more creative than Ivory Coast. As soon as they conceded the two rapid-fire goals, they seemed to deflate and offered absolutely nothing. I saw enough quality there that I really could imagine them winning their two other games. But I saw enough flaws that I could also see them losing both. I really hope they get three points next time out against Greece. This is an interesting group and I hope that there’s tension in it going into the final set of matches.

Favorite goals so far? It’s hard to argue with Van Persie’s header, but that Robben goal was also sublime. And Costa Rica’s third today (the incredible through ball and incredible one-touch placement by Ureña) is right up there for me.

Predictions for tomorrow:

• Switzerland 1 – 1 Ecuador
• France 2 – 0 Honduras
• Argentina 2 – 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina

I’m going to bet on a 1-1 draw, because I’ve tried that four times already and been wrong every time. I’m going to be against a CONCACAF team, because I’ve been wrong about both of them so far. And I’m going to bet on Argentina because I think they are very very good at football.

Tons of goals so far. This is shaping up to be a great, attacking-oriented tournament. Hope it sticks! The big game obviously was the Dutch demolition of Spain, but both of the other games had a lot to hold your interest.

Mexico 1 – 0 Cameroon

More refereeing controversy! Mexico scored two perfectly good goals in the first half, only to see them both ruled out for phantom offside calls. Fortunately for them, Cameroon was pretty terrible so they just had to keep pushing and eventually got themselves a much-deserved goal. I was astonished at how much time and space Mexico got on the ball, even in the attacking third. They were picking out passes at will. And Cameroon seemed to have no idea how to deal with the wing backs. You wouldn’t think it would matter that much since they were playing so deep most of the time that there shouldn’t have been any space for them. But despite playing so deep, there was still routinely tons of space on the wings for them to run into. Cameroon are still technically in the competition, but frankly it would take a miracle for them to advance at this point. They absolutely HAVE to beat Croatia next time up, and on the evidence of these first games I don’t see much chance of that.

Spain 1 – 5 Netherlands

Wow. What else is there to say? I have been telling people that the Dutch were being underrated, but even with that I still said yesterday that I’d be surprised to see them win. To see them win by four goals…wow. Spain actually looked reasonably good in the first half. Not quite their best, certainly, but they were generally in control and creating some good opportunities. And if they looked shaky against the Dutch counter, it took a moment of magic from Van Persie to score. Going into halftime, I expected a much tighter second half, more closely resembling the final from four years ago. Instead, they were carved open by another wonderful pass from Blind (who was incredible) and a delicious bit of control and precision from Robben. And then…well…they completely fell apart. They started passing wildly, miscontrolling the ball, and tackling poorly. They almost gave up another wonder strike to Van Persie and then DID concede a goal that looked much like the disallowed one from Croatia yesterday. After that, they were completely in tatters. Casillas made a howler, Robben tore them apart for fun, and they couldn’t string together a couple passes.

It was crazy. They have been so good over the past six years at muffling the opposition based on their precision and control in possession. It permits them to play a super high line and press intensely on the rare occasions that they lose the ball. But today we saw what happens when you attempt to play like Spain but can’t complete your passes. You get absolutely demolished.

It’s worth pointing out that Spain also lost their opening match in 2010 and still managed to win the group. But they’ve really dug themselves a hole here. They’re going to have to beat Chile (a very good team) and Australia. And even then, they would almost certainly have to play Brazil in the round of 16. If they’re going to win, I think they have to go back to playing with a false 9, use Pedro and Fabregas, and keep Costa/Torres as subs. And sort out what the hell was going wrong in front of the back four that kept leaving them so utterly exposed.

Chile 3 – 1 Australia

The only game I predicted correctly, and I got it exactly right. But the scoreline did not reflect the sort of dominance I thought it would. Chile looked fantastic for the first 15 minutes, looked tolerable for a while after that, and then looked completely flat for most of the rest of the match. Australia really wasn’t very good, but they spent a good portion of the second half in control of the game. It was crazy. Chile’s biggest failures were a) a seeming fear of shooting and b) an inability to close down the opposing team. Which is really strange because those are supposed to be the defining features of this team. So who knows? Australia put in a good effort, but in the end they just didn’t have enough quality to exploit Chile’s lackadaisical play. Cahill was great, which was fun. He’s always been one of my favorites players, for doing so much with such obvious limitations. And this Leckie fellow was really impressive. I had never even heard of him, but I thought he was probably the most uniformly good player on the pitch. Australia very likely will lose their next two games, but they were good enough here to make it clear that they could still spring a surprise on one of the big kids. And I’m excited to see this new generation develop.

Tomorrow we’ve got four games. Very exciting. Predictions:

• Colombia 2 – 0 Greece
• Uruguay 2 – 0 Costa Rica
• England 1 – 1 Italy
• Ivory Coast 1 – 1 Japan

I think Colombia is quite strong, but that result might also be some wish-casting for me because I just want Greece to fade out quickly.  I don’t think Uruguay is really that good, but Costa Rica is really not.  England and Italy, I think, will both think a draw will serve them fine and will play it out.  Ivory Coast and Japan…I have no idea. Nothing there would surprise me.  A 6-0 annihilation by either side, a drab 0-0, a crazy 5-4…who knows?

Brazil 3 – 1 Croatia

Croatia has every right to feel extremely hard done-by here. They were excellent and deserved at least one point. In fact, I think you could make the argument that they were the better team over 90 minutes. Brazil looked better in the first half, albeit a bit flat. It really seemed like Croatia was trying to play on the counter without having really sorted out what that would look like. The midfield trio were very good at winning the ball but all seemed to hold back a lot. Which meant when the ball went down the wings there wasn’t much to work with in the center.

But in the second half, they really got a strong handle on things. Modric in particular was extremely good. Comfortable on the ball, great vision, picking out high quality passes. Rakitic was also impressive. He made a few more dumb mistakes and wasn’t quite as stable. But he also made a bunch of great long diagonal passes that seemed to catch Brazil totally by surprise and opened up the whole field. Croatia’s midfield was also excellent (and Brazil extremely accommodating) about winning the ball in the attacking half. I lost track of how many times Brazil got caught in possession in terribly dangerous locations. But it was a lot.

For Brazil, Fred was pretty useless (apart from his dive) and Hulk wasn’t much better. The defense was weak. Julio Cesar looked hesitant and weak on a bunch of shots. And they gave up possession in dangerous spots WAY too easily. They got the three points because of some terrible refereeing and some terrible goalkeeping.

So, on the first count, I hate it when the ref becomes the story, but there’s really no way around it here. Things were locked at 1-1 and Brazil really didn’t look like they had any path to another goal, when a penalty was awarded for absolutely nothing. I often try to remember just how fast things move and just how hard it is to keep track of everything. But in this case it looked like a dive the first time and every time after. Just a terrible decision to award a penalty. And he made a bunch of other questionable calls, including several that were just as game-changing. Disallowing the potential second Croatian goal was a 60/40 call, so I can’t complain about that one too much. But it sure seemed like there was a foul in the dis-possession that led to Brazil’s third goal. I haven’t been able to see a good enough replay of it to be sure, but he was clattered into from behind and knocked to the ground. Without that, Oscar doesn’t get the chance to shoot.

Then there’s Pletikosa, the hapless Croatian keeper, who was at fault to some degree on all three of the goals. What he was doing on Oscar’s shot, I have no idea. I guess he was just surprised that it was poked? But a quality keeper will stop that shot much more often than not.

Given all that, I’ve already seen a number of comments saying that Brazil were terrible, or shouldn’t be considered favorites anymore. While there’s no denying they didn’t look great today, that seems an overreaction. Their defense will be better, Oscar was superb, Neymar showed some real class. And for a few stretches they looked VERY good. The 10-15 leading up to their first goals they were slashing through Croatia. And they looked excellent to close out the first half, too.  I still think they’re more likely than not to make the semifinals…and anything is possible from there.

Predictions for tomorrow:

• Mexico 1 – 1 Cameroon
• Spain 1 – 1 Netherlands
• Chile 3 – 1 Australia

I could see any of the three results in the first game, and possibly in the second one (though I would be a bit surprised if the Dutch win).  It’s hard to see anything but a Chile win, though.  If they want to advance from this group they absolutely must beat Australia, and it sure wouldn’t hurt to do so by a big margin.

Some rambling thoughts, interspersed with some cool World Cup facts that I’ve discovered in the past few days.

* Brazil is responsible for 11% of all victories in World Cup history. They’ve won 67 times.  Meanwhile, the 47 least-winning teams in World Cup history combined have fewer wins than them. The teams are Scotland (4), Japan (4), Peru (4), Cameroon (4), Nigeria (4), Bulgaria (3), Northern Ireland (3), Colombia (3), Costa Rica (3), Ecuador (3), Ireland (2), South Africa (2), Morocco (2), Norway (2), Australia (2), Senegal (2), East Germany (2), Algeria (2), Saudi Arabia (2), Ukraine (2), Ivory Coast (2), Tunisia (1), Wales (1), Iran (1), Cuba (1), Slovakia (1), Slovenia (1), North Korea (1), Jamaica (1), Greece (1), Honduras (0), New Zealand (0), Angola (0), Israel (0), Egypt (0), Kuwait (0), Trinidad and Tobago (0), Bolivia (0), Iraq (0), Togo (0), Canada (0), Dutch East Indies (0), United Arab Emirates (0), China (0), Haiti (0), Zaire (0), El Salvador (0).

* Speaking of which, my prediction for tomorrow is that Brazil will add to their all-time lead: Brazil 2 – 0 Croatia

* Brazil won their 67 matches in 97 chances. The 47 bottom teams took 369 chances to get 66 wins.

* Brazil has scored the most goals in World Cup history (210) but is only four ahead of Germany.  Brazil has been the all-time leading scorers in the tournament ever since 1950, but Germany has been on their heels most of that time, usually within about 10 goals of catching them, and getting as close as just 3 goals away in 1990.

* Further thoughts on the US team: I’m still not super-optimistic, but the more I’ve thought about the system that we’re playing (a diamond midfield), I’m getting a little bit more enthused. My general feeling is that international teams who ‘overperform’ almost always do so because they function as a coherent unit. They get guys to play roles, rather than just relying on individual talent. And this diamond really does capitalize on that idea. Beckerman is a severely limited player, who is almost certainly not one of the four or five best US midfielders. But he is tremendously disciplined and will play the very specific role he’s been given very well. We don’t really have any great wingers, nor do we have all that much pace. Which is bad because we’re probably going to be trying to play on the counter a bunch. But this diamond formation facilitates that. Altidore isn’t really very good at holding up play and giving the other attackers time to run into things. And there’s no getting around that being a problem. But the diamond helps a bit by making Bradley a much easier option for holding up play in the midfield. I still think we’ll be three-and-out, but I’m starting to convince myself that it wouldn’t be totally crazy if they make it out of the group.

* Italy has the most draws in World Cup history. This is not remotely surprising. Mexico has the most losses (24).  Which is impressive in a sense; you have to be consistently pretty good to rack up that many losses.  Germany and Argentina, for example, are tied for second with 20 losses.  But Germany picked up those losses while winning 48 more games than Mexico.

* The 538 predictions are useless. Don’t pay any attention to them. It includes a ton of stupid or indeterminate inputs that seem to have created some positive feedbacks, throwing some of their predictions beyond the realm of counter-intuitive into utterly absurd.  There is absolutely zero chance that Brazil is an 88% chance to win each of their group games. That’s a ludicrous result that calls the whole thing into doubt.  If you want a more helpful model, check out Michael Caley’s.  It is better because it attempts to do less, making it a useful starting point for conversation rather than an incredibly complex GIGO system.

* Over the past three World Cups, only four teams have lost their opening match and still escaped the group. One is Spain in 2010, who lost their first match and then only conceded one more goal on their way to victory. The other three were Ghana in 2006, Ukraine in 2006, and Turkey in 2002. Ghana lost to Italy, who went on to win. Turkey lost to Brazil, who also went on to win. Basically: if you lose your opening match, you better be the best team in the world or have lost to the best team in the world. Otherwise, you’re pretty much toast.

World Tour (Weezy, Wale, Dre) – Brenton Duvall

Argentina – Tokyo Police Club

We’ve waited 1,428 days since Andres Iniesta scored the winning goal for Spain.  And now there are just a couple more days left until Brazil takes the pitch against Croatia, and the World Cup bestows its wonderful presence on us for a month.

This post will cover my predictions for each group, and some rather pointless speculation about what might happen in the knockout stage if my guesses about the groups were to pan out.  I’ll admit up front that I’m a little bit less plugged into things than I was four years ago, when I felt like I could speak pretty confidently about most of the teams in the competition.  This time around, there are a lot of young talents that I know of but don’t really know much about, and I fully expect that some of them will be absolute revelations to me.  So take my opinions and predictions with the appropriately big grain of salt.

One big theme, I think, is going to be the overwhelming dominance of Europe and South America.  I’m predicting zero North American teams, zero African teams, and only one Asian team to get out of the group stage.  Most likely, another one or two will slip in.  But I really think that the top 10-12 teams in this tournament come from the two power continents.  And a lot of the African and North American teams, in particular, are a bit weaker than they were four years ago.  If I’m right, it could well be a bloodbath for those confederations.

Group A (Brazil, Croatia, Mexico, Cameroon)

Brazil is clearly the cream of the crop here.  But I have a hard time placing just how good this team really is. I suppose they are mild favorites, but there are a lot of questions about them. Neymar is good, but can he carry the team?  They’ve got great attacking fullbacks, but will they be exposed on defense?  I’m not fully convinced by Oscar and Hulk. Will they regret not really having a top-class center forward? But those are questions for the second round. They should win the group at a canter.  Second place is a toss-up. I think Croatia is the strongest of the three, certainly on the evidence of their recent results. Mexico was atrocious in qualifying and hasn’t looked much better since.  But for all that, they’ve got a lot of talent so it wouldn’t shock me to see them advance.

• 1st: Brazil
• 2nd: Croatia

Group B (Spain, Netherlands, Chile, Australia)

Spain are the current holders of…basically everything worth winning in world football (World Cup, European champions, two Spanish teams were in the Champions League final, they won the Europa League, and so on).  Their cycle is starting to reach its conclusion, so I wouldn’t quite call them favorites to repeat.  But it’s also hard to argue against them. Their defense is a little shaky, particular against set pieces.  And their strikers all have question marks.  And Xavi doesn’t quite have the legs anymore.  But there is just so much talent in this team that their second-string would still be one of the five or six best in the tournament.  A lot of people seem to be down on the Dutch, but I think they’re pretty strong. Their defense is mostly drawn from the Eredivisie, which is a red flag. But they have some of the best attacking talent in the world and if they can gel could once again threaten to finally win a cup for themselves.  I suppose that means I’m tipping Chile to miss out here, which is a tough call.  They are an excellent team, and will be difficult to play. In almost any other group, they’d be likely to advance. Just not this one.

• 1st: Spain
• 2nd: Netherlands

Group C (Colombia, Greece, Ivory Coast, Japan)

Colombia is everyone’s dark horse for this tournament, and I suppose they are for me, too. Even without Falcao. I could actually see any two teams advance here, but my gut tells me that Colombia is too solid to lose to any of these teams, which will get them first place.  I think Ivory Coast is just a couple years too late.  Apart from Yaya Toure, who is one of the very small number of players that could argue for being third best in the world (behind Ronaldo and Messi).  He can dominate a game like almost no one else, so it’s hard to argue against them.  But most of the supplemental parts are much weaker than the past several iterations of this team. So I’m tempted to go with them, but am going to stick with Japan.  Now, I’m not nearly as high on them as I was 12-18 months ago.  Some of their key players had pretty down years (Keisuke Honda and Shinji Kagawa in particular).  But they strike me as the most fluid team in the group, and I make them slight favorites to take second place. Greece will be Greece and I will hate them.  And they certainly could lumber their way to a victory and a draw and a berth in the second round.  I certainly hope not, though.

• 1st: Colombia
• 2nd: Japan

Group D (Uruguay, Costa Rica, England, Italy)

I weirdly think this England team is sneakily good.  They’ve got a lot of in-form players, and the weight of expectations seems to be pretty low.  Their back line is solid (well, except for right back) and they’ve got a couple attackers who have hit their stride at exactly the right time (Sturridge, Sterling).  Honestly, if they just handed this team over to the Liverpool contingent, they could be quite good.  What will drag them down is lack of control in the midfield, and an over-reliance on Wayne Rooney—who is a world class player in some respects but doesn’t fit into this particular team, and is unreliable even at his best.  I massively under-rated Uruguay four years ago, and I’m going to do it again this time around. If Suarez is fully fit and on his game, they could win the group. But if not, I don’t see it. Apart from him, I think this team is much weaker than last time around.  Italy will be Italy, I suppose. Honestly, they don’t seem too impressive for me.  Who is going to score goals for them? And their backline is as rickety as its been in many a year. Still, they’re Italy. Costa Rica is not very good and will be lucky to get a single point.

• 1st:  England
• 2nd: Italy

Group E (Switzerland, Ecuador, France, Honduras)

Oh, France, will your good fortune never cease?  FIFA changed the rules of the draw right before it took place, and stuck Italy in the extra bin, rather than France who should have been there.  Which meant Italy got a MUCH tougher group. And here is France, who just have to beat a good-but-unexciting Switzerland, a team that dominates at home in the mountains but is not very impressive elsewhere (Ecuador), and another rotten team from CONCACAF (Honduras).  After 2010 and 2002, I will believe anything about France’s potential to screw up, but I’ll still pick them to win this group with ease.  And hopefully be proven wrong again.

• 1st: France
• 2nd: Ecuador

Group F (Argentina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iran, Nigeria)

Nigeria and Iran might pick up a point from each other, but should be pretty well toasted by the other two in this group.  I’m picking Argentina to win the whole thing, partly because I think they are very very good.  And partly because they have the easiest route to the semifinals of anyone in the world.  Win this group, beat the second place team from the very weak Group E, and get a quarterfinal match against someone like Portugal or Belgium.  They’ve built this team around Messi, and I think he’s going to finally win the World Cup that will cement his place among the all-time greats.  Along with him, there’s Aguero (who is luminescent in his own right), Di Maria (who was the best player in the Champions League final a couple weeks ago), and Higuain.  This team is going to attack.  A lot.  Which means the other key player is Javier Mascherano, who is going to be responsible for shutting down the inevitable counterattacks.  Argentina should be fun to watch.

• 1st: Argentina
• 2nd: Bosnia-Herzegovina

Group G (Germany, Portugal, USA, Ghana)

And here are our boys.  I have to say: I’m not optimistic.  I certainly think this team has it in them to beat Ghana and nick a draw from Portugal and/or Germany.  But each of those results is at least a little optimistic.  I would not be at all shocked if we only get one point (or even zero) from this group.  The key player, by a mile, is Michael Bradley.  If we do well it’s going to be because Bradley is able to exert himself on the game.  He has the vision that no one else has got.  We could also benefit enormously from the good version of Altidore (who was totally absent with Sunderland this year but has re-appeared in the last two warmup games).  But we’re relying heavily on Kyle Beckerman to preserve our shape.  And, I mean, I like Beckerman.  But…against the German attack…I’m just not sure it’s going to work.  Germany has lost Reus, which is a real blow for them, but as with Spain, they could run out their second line and still have a decent shot of winning this thing.  If they have a genuine weakness, I guess it’s at left back?  And possibly their midfield (especially without Reus) might not be quite as strong as one might have expected.  Khedira is barely back from injury, Schweinsteiger doesn’t look nearly as dominant as he did a few years ago, Ozil has blown hot and cold, etc.  But that’s measured against a VERY high standard.  They might well have the best midfield in the world, even with those concerns.  Portugal is going to live or die based on Ronaldo, who is the best player in the world right now (and only partly because Messi has had a ‘down’ year).  The rest of their team is very good, but if Ronaldo dominates like he’s capable of, Portugal could end up adding their name to short list of countries that have won a World Cup.  Ghana has knocked the US out of the last two tournaments and I’m terrified they’re going to (effectively) do so again this time around.  I think this team is a fair step weaker than the 2010 version, but the US probably is, too.  That first game is going to be mighty tense.

• 1st: Germany
• 2nd: Portugal

Group H (Belgium, Algeria, Russia, South Korea)

Belgium are the hipster pick, and I’m going to go right along with it. Their golden generation has all hit stride at the same time, and might well be a hurricane through this tournament. They’ve got a great keeper, great central defenders, a great midfield, and talented strikers.  They don’t really have any natural fullbacks, which could be their weak spot, but even that is compensated by their strength and canniness in the central midfield. This isn’t a team that has to rely on width to pick apart a defense.  If Lukaku were to get injured, that could cause real problems for them, since Benteke is already out and they don’t really have another option to play the lone striker role.  As for the other teams, Russia has not impressed me much when I’ve watched them, but I don’t have much faith in South Korea or Algeria being able to knock them out.

• 1st: Belgium
• 2nd: Russia

Those results would set up these second round matches:

• Brazil over the Netherlands – This is a really terrible draw for Brazil, to face the team who knocked them out last time this early. But I think they’ll eke out a win here
• Colombia over Italy – The Azzurri will be beaten at their own game in this one.
• Spain over Croatia – It’ll probably be a straightforward 1-0, with Spain controlling possession and doing just enough to get their needed goal
• England over Japan – I think Hodgson is particularly well suited to shut down a team like Japan. A comfortable 2-0
• France over Bosnia – Ugh. I’m still picking France.  I really like Bosnia a lot, just don’t think they’ll have quite enough. This could very easily go to penalties
• Germany over Russia – An easy win for the Germans
• Argentina over Ecuador – Argentina thumped Ecuador 4-0 in qualifying. Could easily see that again here
• Portugal over Belgium – Another big match between two very good teams.  I make Portugal the slight favorites, but it really could go either way.

For the quarterfinals:

• Brazil over Colombia
• Spain over England
• Germany over France
• Argentina over Portugal

Yes, I’m just picking the consensus top-four teams to make the semifinals.  I wanted to go with someone else, but I just can’t quite justify it.  I would say that eventual victor has an 80-85% chance of coming from these four.  Maybe a little more.  The only other teams I give a meaningful shot to are the Netherlands, Belgium, and Portugal.  Maybe France and Colombia.  Everyone else is in ‘hey, Greece won the Euros so anything is possible, right?’ territory.

For the semifinals, I have the South American countries beaten their European opposition, which sets up an Argentina-Brazil match for the ages in the final.  And I believe in the power of Messi, so I’m going to pick Argentina to hoist the cup.