Heartache With Hard Work

This was probably the worst day of the tournament so far, because only one of the games was superb. The others were merely solid. And there was a stretch of about two and half hours where not a single goal went in! But that’s how good things have been for us.

Belgium 2 – 1 Algeria

Not the most convincing victory from the Belgians, but they successfully kicked things into gear for a 20-minute spell in the second half when they got both their goals. For all the skill in their attacking players, they seemed strangely lost for ideas for most of the match. Still, I think you have to give credit to Algeria who were a lot better than four years ago, and did a very nice job of stifling Belgium’s options while also posing enough of a threat going forward to keep them honest. At least for the first 50-60 minutes.

For Belgium: the lack of real fullbacks did seem like a problem. It meant Algeria could clog the middle of the pitch and deny the space for the creative players. Still: the doom and gloom about this performance is being overstated. They were clearly the better team and got their deserved three points. Both goals were good, and showed strengths of the team. Fellaini’s header reminds us of how many different impact players they have to call on. And their second goal was beautiful – winning the ball in their own box and then racing to the other end to score. If they get a lead and draw out the opposition, or if they play teams who look to play high defensive lines, you’ll see more like that. And they could have scored several others. I had them as 50/50 to make the quarterfinals and that still seems about right.

Brazil 0 – 0 Mexico

One of the more exciting 0-0 games you’re likely to see. And strong evidence that goals aren’t necessary to make a classic match.  End to end stuff, shifts in momentum, powerful attacks, great tackles. And Brazil continue to be less-than-impressive. For a team that was supposedly as likely to win this thing as the entire rest of the field combined, they sure haven’t shown much yet. They were better today—results notwithstanding, and did create quite a few chances. But still not nearly as many as they would have hoped. In addition, they had to contend with a keeper who seemed to preternaturally always be in the right place. That said, and not to take away from Ochoa’s performance too much (he was very good), but a number of those saves were more a matter of Brazil shooting straight at the keeper and less about particularly great saves.

On the balance I would say that Brazil was better, but not by all that much, and a draw was a pretty fair result. And there were certainly periods where Mexico was rampant and looked far more likely to score. The first half was pretty chippy, with the ref allowing lots of fouls, but he clamped down a bit in the second half and the quality of play got even better. I also appreciate him not giving a penalty to Brazil for something similar to the one from their Croatia game. Marcelo was slightly more firmly touched than Fred, but it still wasn’t a penalty.

Russia 1 – 1 South Korea

If not for the Iran-Nigeria game, this would be the worst match of the tournament. But it really wasn’t that bad. It’s just that this tournament is spoiled for riches. Both goals were eminently preventable. Akinfeev was spilling shots the whole game, as if he didn’t know he was even allowed to catch the ball. But his mistake for the goal was really something else. He didn’t quite throw the ball in his own net, but it was pretty close. And then on the other side, the keeper let it spill loose as well and the Russian effort successfully bundled it into the net eventually. Speaking of which, I have a message for the Korean defenders: maybe instead of standing there with your arms in the air demanding a handball call, you should try to STOP THE GUY FROM SHOOTING. I have never, not once in my life, seen those demands change the ref’s mind. But I constantly see defenders switch off and fail to prevent goals. It’s maddening. Anyways, neither of these teams were very impressive. Group H certainly looks like the weakest group at this point.

Predictions for tomorrow:

• Australia 0 – 2 Netherlands
• Spain 1 – 1 Chile
• Cameroon 1 – 2 Croatia

I was reasonably impressed with Australia, but they’re still not a match for the Dutch, I don’t think. I’ve gone back and forth on the second game many times. I still think Spain is very good but I worry about their ability to bounce back from what happened in the first game. I didn’t see too much quality in Cameroon and thought Croatia was very good, which mostly confirms my pre-tournament expectations.  So I’ll call that one a victory for the Europeans.

Because I’m a huge nerd, I went back and re-watched the first half on the ESPN tactical cam.  It basically shows you the whole pitch from way up behind one of the goals.  Very interesting way to experience the game.  Lets you see a lot of stuff that gets missed with the standard approach.  Some more thoughts, after seeing things a second time around:

• I’m not sure what formation this was, but it would be really stretching things to call it a diamond. Certainly after Altidore went off, it pretty much just looked like a 4-4-2 with four central midfielders and minimal support from the fullbacks. Which definitely explain why things weren’t going very well.
• The back line was doing a very good job of playing the Ghanaian attackers offside in the opening 20 minutes or so.
• Beasley wasn’t quite as bad as I remembered. He was pressured, certainly, but wasn’t getting torn apart. 
• Howard was excellent. Few shots to stop, but he commanded the area very well. There were a couple dangerous-looking crosses that he took nicely. There was a very dangerous throughball that he came out to stop which took him outside the box. I think a lot of keepers would have stayed back and potentially been burned. His distribution was okay. They were playing from the back much more than late in the game. 
• Ghana basically got nothing down the left. Every time they tried, Johnson and/or Bedoya were a brick wall, and they had to shift things back to the right.
• Bradley was perfectly fine for 15 minutes or so, but then started giving away presents like it was Ghana’s birthday. For the final third of the half, I’m not sure he contributed positively in any way at all. Very strange.
• As far as I could tell, from about the 6th to the 16th minute Dempsey touched the ball precisely once (and he was offside). But then just a few minutes later he had a lovely touch that linked up the play in the move that built up to Altidore’s blocked shot. He rescued a 50/50 ball, had a quick one-two with Bradley, and then got the ball to Bedoya, who sent it racing down the wing to Johnson coming forward, who then whipped it into the box. That play was really excellent and was a couple of feet away from putting the US up 2-0. If Bradley had been two steps further forward he could have buried the ball in the net. And when it came to Jozy it was just a bit too far behind him so he had to collect and then couldn’t get any power on the shot, which gave the defenders time to get in the way.
• I would definitely say that up until Altidore went off, the US were pretty clearly the better team. The tide had already started to turn a little bit at that point, and the US players were starting to send a lot more pointless long balls. But the big shift was definitely right at this moment. After he went off, they looked very lost. I almost feel like there has to have been a psychological element. It often seems like the 20 minute mark is kind of a natural lull, when a team with the advantage starts to cool off anyways. Add in the stress of losing Altidore and the necessity altering the game plan, and i can definitely see it causing them to start pressing. I don’t think they tried a single attack down the wings for ages after it. They just were playing sideways passes in their own half and then hoofing it up the center of the pitch. 
• For all that Ghana was firmly in control of the game for the last 25-30 minutes of the half, they really couldn’t find much of a way through. And I don’t think that’s just down to them being poor or spurning chances. Their chances were mostly pretty terrible because they were exclusively working from the wing and weren’t being given any angles. But it definitely helps to explain why the eventual addition of Prince-Boateng was so huge
• The quality of play for the last 20 minutes was not good [em]at all[/em]. By either team. It looked a lot like Iran-Nigeria. Ghana was definitely better, in the sense that they successfully completed some of their passes. But honestly they weren’t that much better. Lots of dumb and pointless giveaways by both sides.

In real time, I thought the US were pretty poor in the first half.  On the rewatch, I’m a little bit less critical.  Ghana was probably a bit better over the half, but they didn’t create any opportunities as good as Dempsey’s goal.  Or as good as the move I mentioned from the US that ended with Altidore’s blocked shot.

In the grand scheme of things, I think I’d rather have a few good chances than more mediocre ones.

Two more great games today. One featured beautiful and flowing football from the Germans. The other featured scrappy, mediocre football from the German-Americans. And the less said about the third game the better.

Germany 4 – 0 Portugal

In some ways it was the most emphatic performance of the tournament. Unlike Spain, Portugal didn’t suffer a nervous collapse or anything; they just couldn’t withstand the relentless pressure and found it very difficult to stay afloat. I honestly didn’t think they were all that bad for the first 40 minutes or so. They gave up two goals, yes, but created a few chances of their own. And I mostly think it was just a matter of Germany being very very good, more than Portugal being bad. But then, of course, Pepe was an idiot (shocking, I know) and got himself sent off (who could have guessed) and from that point on they were pretty abject. Still, Germany should be very happy with their performance. They pretty effectively neutralized Ronaldo and were playing some beautiful football in the midfield. A 4-0 result against Portugal is fantastic and Germany should continue to be treated as one of the favorites to make the semifinals.

Oh, and they’re now just three goals behind Brazil for most scored all-time.  They have come as close as a 1-goal deficit, but have never reduced it to zero.

Iran 0 – 0 Nigeria

Do you remember the 2010 World Cup? Iran and Nigeria sure do.

Ghana 1 – 2 United States

USA! Our boys did not play their best game by any stretch of the imagination, but they still came away with three glorious points. And did so against the team who eliminated us from the past two tournaments.

Dempsey’s opening goal was a thing of beauty. Two different wonderful touches to put the ball in precisely the right spot and then a clinical finish. There couldn’t have been a better start. And for about 10-15 minutes, the US looked spritely, engaged, energetic. But from that point on, we were on the backfoot and looked increasingly skill-less. They gave away the ball very quickly, took pointlessly speculative passes, and generally seemed lost. It didn’t help that Altidore went off at about 20 minutes. While he obviously has his weaknesses, a big part of the strategy is built around having him at the top. Johansson gave it his best, but that’s just not his game.

The second half got a little bit better. Clearly they had a talk about re-organizing the formation because Jones provided much better cover for Beasley (who was getting pretty regularly skinned in the first half), and Bradley improved (though not nearly enough).

I have to hand it to the team (and Klinsmann) though. A lot of the guys I’ve been very nervous about played really well. This is probably the best I’ve seen from Jones. Beckerman wasn’t much for the attack, but filled his protective role very well, Brooks came on at the half for the injured Besler and had a few nervous moments but mostly settled in. All in all, it was a very solid defensive performance. Ghana had a fair number of opportunities but most were half-chances, if that. And the ones that did turn up were handled pretty admirably by Howard (who was great).

All that said, for long stretches of this game Ghana was the better team. It’s not just that the US chose to play very defensively to protect the lead, it was the casual way they tossed possession away when they did obtain it. Bradley had one of his worst games for the squad in a long long time. Dempsey was invisible for long stretches (though he was playing with what seemed like a broken nose, so it’s hard to judge him that harshly). Johnson and Beasley provided very little attacking help, which pretty much eliminated the width of our attack.

And when Ghana’s equalizer went in (on a brilliant set of moves BTW – great through ball form the left back, incredible back hell, deadly slicing finish that totally fooled Howard), my heart sank. It sure didn’t look like we had the ideas (or legs) for an equalizer. But just a couple minutes later, John Brooks (!) of all people slammed home a header off a very dangerous corner and just like that, the US was back on top. And from that point on, they played a lot better and held on for the win.

This was a must-win game, and they won it. They didn’t play their best, and will have to do better to get a result from one of the other games. But a draw against Portugal would put us in a commanding position. And that’s certainly achievable. Looking forward to it…

Predictions for tomorrow:

• Belgium 2 – 0 Algeria
• Brazil 3 – 1 Mexico
• Russia 1 – 0 South Korea

Belgium is very good and I don’t expect too much from Algeria. But I said the same thing about Costa Rica so who knows.  I would like to tip Mexico against Brazil but I don’t think they’ll quite get it done.  I imagine this as a 1-1 going into the 85th minute with two quick Brazil goals to close out the match at the end.  I don’t know many of the Russian players anymore, but reliable sources seem to think they’re pretty good (and that South Korea is awful). So I’ll go ahead and call a Russian victory.

I did a much better job predicting results today. Got Argentina exactly right, predicted an easy France victory, and had the third exactly right until literally the final kick of the game. I’m still underestimating the number of goals, though. What a tournament this has been! And still no draws…

Switzerland 2 – 1 Ecuador

For the first 92 minutes, this was the most boring match of the Cup so far. Ecuador got a goal at about 20 minutes, thanks to some terrible…well…defending is too kind a word. Did everyone in the world forget how to defend set pieces in the last week? Because Switzerland equalized with their own incredibly straightforward play: free kick to the head of the effectively-unmarked guy right in front of the goal. In a tournament with some lovely goals, these were not. And after that, not a lot. There were a couple decent penalty shouts and a Swiss goal that was ruled out erroneously for being offside (though it was much closer than some of the other errors that have been made so bothers me less). But the last 25 minutes were terribly dull for the most part. It kind of looked like both teams had placed bets on it being a draw and were actively trying to NOT score. But then in the final minute Ecuador spurned a glorious chance, lost the ball, and a lovely Swiss counter attack raced the other way and won the game. Literally the last kick of the game went into the back of Ecuador’s net. So: relatively boring game, incredibly exciting finish. And once again, the team that conceded first came back to win.

France 3 – 0 Honduras

There has been so much beautiful football in this tournament, but you always want a little diversity right? So we’ve thankfully got Honduras who has as much interest in kicking their opposition as they do in kicking the ball. They played half the game with 10 men and could easily have had two or three more sent off. It’s pretty hard to get me to root for France and against CONCACAF, but after about 20 minutes I was firmly in the French tank. At least they showed up to play the game. I don’t know that this game tells us much about how they’ll do against actual football teams, but it’s certainly better than anything they did four years ago. The second goal was certified by the much-discussed goal-line technology. And it was actually a GREAT example since even the video replay was inconclusive. It’s precisely what we need technology for and it rendered its verdict very quickly. Good on them.

Argentina 2 – 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina

Argentina failed to really impress but got three points from the second-best team in the group and are now almost certain to take first place. They got a somewhat lucky own goal very early, but other than that there wasn’t much to separate them and B&H. They were very flat and stilted. Messi gave the ball away more in that half than he sometimes does in a full month of games. I think a big part of it was the formation. The 5-3-2 REALLY wasn’t working. They weren’t taking advantage of the width and it was keeping Messi isolated.

In the second half, they still weren’t at their best, but were a lot better. Particularly in the 15-20 minutes following Messi’s goal, they looked like the Argentina side that I picked to win the tournament. Speaking of which, what a vintage Messi goal. His control of the ball, his balance, his pace, his awareness of defending players and the goal…just brilliant. All in all, it wasn’t a particularly great game for him, but it was good enough. Elsewhere, Di Maria looked really abject. There didn’t seem to be anything wrong with him; he just couldn’t string together a pass to save his life. But he was incredibly good to close out the year with Madrid, so I don’t see any reason to expect another poor performance like that. If he plays better, it’ll help them a lot.

On the other side of things, I liked a lot of what I saw from B&H. They probably waited too long to bring on their attacking lineup, but they bossed the midfield for long stretches. I still think they’re a pretty solid bet to take second in the group.

Predictions for tomorrow:

• Germany 3 – 2 Portugal
• Iran 1 – 1 Nigeria
• Ghana 2 – 1 United States

I had Germany-Portugal as a goalfest before I knew that this was going to be such a high scoring tournament. So it’ll probably be our first 0-0. I have no idea about the second game. Nigeria looked pretty bad in a pre-tournament friendly against the US, but who knows. And Iran sounds like they might be a bit of a reprise of Honduras. Hope not. As for the last game, well, I’ve said what I can say about the US. There’s a lot to like about this group of players but I just don’t think we’re quite there yet. If I’m wrong, I’ll certainly be happy.

Four more very exciting games. This has been one heck of a tournament so far. No draws in eight games, tons of goals pouring in, some great skill on display, upsets, great goals, and what is almost certainly the worst corner kick in the history of the World Cup. It’s been a lot of fun.

Colombia 3 – 0 Greece

They won by three goals but didn’t really look all that impressive. They got their early goal and held on for the rest of the match reasonably well. But they gave up a lot more good opportunities to Greece than I think they would have liked. A better passing team would have had a lot of luck slicing through their backline. As for Greece, I was pleasantly not irritated by them. Maybe it’s because they went behind so early and had to chase the game, but they actually tried to play football – rather than hunkering down in a concrete shelter. I can honestly see any of the teams in this group winning against any of the others. But obviously Colombia and Ivory Coast have a huge advantage at this point so are clear favorites to go through.

Uruguay 1 – 3 Costa Rica

What a game!  I was really not too impressed with Costa Rica the couple of times I watched them in qualifying, but the team that played today was great. They clearly didn’t have as much skill on the ball as Uruguay, but more than made up for it with clever runs, general intensity, and aggressiveness in the attack. Joel Campbell had a great game and was a major handful. Uruguay, meanwhile, looked pretty poor without Suarez. They played a toothless 4-4-2 and seemed at a loss to open up space in front of the goal. 3-1 is possibly a tiny bit flattering to Costa Rica, but I think they clearly deserved the three points. While I still would bet on Italy-England advancing from this group, getting three points in the bank is a HUGE advantage. If they can play this well again, they will have a great shot of advancing from a group where I thought they’d get 0 points.

England 1 – 2 Italy

Meet the new England, same as the old England. For about 40 minutes they seemed to be something genuinely new. They were full of pace and Italy seemed totally unable to handle their lightning attacks down the right side. Sterling, Welbeck, and Sturridge were all linking up wonderfully with Glen Johnson bombing forward. Basically EVERY attack was down that channel, and even though it was obvious what they were doing, Italy didn’t seem to have an answer. Meanwhile, Wayne Rooney was wandering around in circles on the other side, doing nothing of any use. Of course, their goal came from the other side, thanks to a delicious cross from Rooney. It suggested that they could exploit both sides and really stretch the Italian defense. I thought they had every chance to win the game at that point.

But instead of building on their goal, they basically set up shop to close out the half and the team who emerged in the second half was totally zombified. Instead of looking exciting as they attacked down the wings, they looked lost. Once Italy scored their second, they basically stopped trying to play and just defended deep for the entire rest of the game. And England had absolutely nothing to say about it. I honestly can’t think of a single promising attack that came through the center of the pitch. All they could do was pass to the wing, run toward the touchline and then a) try to dribble past a mass of defenders and concede possession or b) tap a weak cross into the middle that was easily cleared. It was wretched. And was precisely the sort of clueless, tactically inept, boring stuff that you’d expect from a classic England team. It’s like they had never considered the possibility that Italy might defend deep and were utterly bewildered by the idea.

I said this in my preview and I’ll say it again: Rooney is a problem.  I really think he needs to be dropped. He still has flashes of brilliance but they’re getting more and more rare – and are totally non-existent in a rather large set of World Cup matches at this point. And he doesn’t work in their best system. At all. Apart from that one cross, he did nothing today. Well, apart from taking the single worst corner kick in history.

Oh, and I have a serious crush on Andrea Pirlo. Check out the slice he put on that free kick that hit the bar. Insane.  And that dummy to set up the first goal. Wonderful. He’s so dreamy.

Ivory Coast 2 – 1 Japan

I thought Japan looked pretty good while they were leading. Despite an obvious disadvantage in physicality, they managed to keep control of the midfield reasonably well, and were a lot more creative than Ivory Coast. As soon as they conceded the two rapid-fire goals, they seemed to deflate and offered absolutely nothing. I saw enough quality there that I really could imagine them winning their two other games. But I saw enough flaws that I could also see them losing both. I really hope they get three points next time out against Greece. This is an interesting group and I hope that there’s tension in it going into the final set of matches.

Favorite goals so far? It’s hard to argue with Van Persie’s header, but that Robben goal was also sublime. And Costa Rica’s third today (the incredible through ball and incredible one-touch placement by Ureña) is right up there for me.

Predictions for tomorrow:

• Switzerland 1 – 1 Ecuador
• France 2 – 0 Honduras
• Argentina 2 – 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina

I’m going to bet on a 1-1 draw, because I’ve tried that four times already and been wrong every time. I’m going to be against a CONCACAF team, because I’ve been wrong about both of them so far. And I’m going to bet on Argentina because I think they are very very good at football.

Tons of goals so far. This is shaping up to be a great, attacking-oriented tournament. Hope it sticks! The big game obviously was the Dutch demolition of Spain, but both of the other games had a lot to hold your interest.

Mexico 1 – 0 Cameroon

More refereeing controversy! Mexico scored two perfectly good goals in the first half, only to see them both ruled out for phantom offside calls. Fortunately for them, Cameroon was pretty terrible so they just had to keep pushing and eventually got themselves a much-deserved goal. I was astonished at how much time and space Mexico got on the ball, even in the attacking third. They were picking out passes at will. And Cameroon seemed to have no idea how to deal with the wing backs. You wouldn’t think it would matter that much since they were playing so deep most of the time that there shouldn’t have been any space for them. But despite playing so deep, there was still routinely tons of space on the wings for them to run into. Cameroon are still technically in the competition, but frankly it would take a miracle for them to advance at this point. They absolutely HAVE to beat Croatia next time up, and on the evidence of these first games I don’t see much chance of that.

Spain 1 – 5 Netherlands

Wow. What else is there to say? I have been telling people that the Dutch were being underrated, but even with that I still said yesterday that I’d be surprised to see them win. To see them win by four goals…wow. Spain actually looked reasonably good in the first half. Not quite their best, certainly, but they were generally in control and creating some good opportunities. And if they looked shaky against the Dutch counter, it took a moment of magic from Van Persie to score. Going into halftime, I expected a much tighter second half, more closely resembling the final from four years ago. Instead, they were carved open by another wonderful pass from Blind (who was incredible) and a delicious bit of control and precision from Robben. And then…well…they completely fell apart. They started passing wildly, miscontrolling the ball, and tackling poorly. They almost gave up another wonder strike to Van Persie and then DID concede a goal that looked much like the disallowed one from Croatia yesterday. After that, they were completely in tatters. Casillas made a howler, Robben tore them apart for fun, and they couldn’t string together a couple passes.

It was crazy. They have been so good over the past six years at muffling the opposition based on their precision and control in possession. It permits them to play a super high line and press intensely on the rare occasions that they lose the ball. But today we saw what happens when you attempt to play like Spain but can’t complete your passes. You get absolutely demolished.

It’s worth pointing out that Spain also lost their opening match in 2010 and still managed to win the group. But they’ve really dug themselves a hole here. They’re going to have to beat Chile (a very good team) and Australia. And even then, they would almost certainly have to play Brazil in the round of 16. If they’re going to win, I think they have to go back to playing with a false 9, use Pedro and Fabregas, and keep Costa/Torres as subs. And sort out what the hell was going wrong in front of the back four that kept leaving them so utterly exposed.

Chile 3 – 1 Australia

The only game I predicted correctly, and I got it exactly right. But the scoreline did not reflect the sort of dominance I thought it would. Chile looked fantastic for the first 15 minutes, looked tolerable for a while after that, and then looked completely flat for most of the rest of the match. Australia really wasn’t very good, but they spent a good portion of the second half in control of the game. It was crazy. Chile’s biggest failures were a) a seeming fear of shooting and b) an inability to close down the opposing team. Which is really strange because those are supposed to be the defining features of this team. So who knows? Australia put in a good effort, but in the end they just didn’t have enough quality to exploit Chile’s lackadaisical play. Cahill was great, which was fun. He’s always been one of my favorites players, for doing so much with such obvious limitations. And this Leckie fellow was really impressive. I had never even heard of him, but I thought he was probably the most uniformly good player on the pitch. Australia very likely will lose their next two games, but they were good enough here to make it clear that they could still spring a surprise on one of the big kids. And I’m excited to see this new generation develop.

Tomorrow we’ve got four games. Very exciting. Predictions:

• Colombia 2 – 0 Greece
• Uruguay 2 – 0 Costa Rica
• England 1 – 1 Italy
• Ivory Coast 1 – 1 Japan

I think Colombia is quite strong, but that result might also be some wish-casting for me because I just want Greece to fade out quickly.  I don’t think Uruguay is really that good, but Costa Rica is really not.  England and Italy, I think, will both think a draw will serve them fine and will play it out.  Ivory Coast and Japan…I have no idea. Nothing there would surprise me.  A 6-0 annihilation by either side, a drab 0-0, a crazy 5-4…who knows?

Brazil 3 – 1 Croatia

Croatia has every right to feel extremely hard done-by here. They were excellent and deserved at least one point. In fact, I think you could make the argument that they were the better team over 90 minutes. Brazil looked better in the first half, albeit a bit flat. It really seemed like Croatia was trying to play on the counter without having really sorted out what that would look like. The midfield trio were very good at winning the ball but all seemed to hold back a lot. Which meant when the ball went down the wings there wasn’t much to work with in the center.

But in the second half, they really got a strong handle on things. Modric in particular was extremely good. Comfortable on the ball, great vision, picking out high quality passes. Rakitic was also impressive. He made a few more dumb mistakes and wasn’t quite as stable. But he also made a bunch of great long diagonal passes that seemed to catch Brazil totally by surprise and opened up the whole field. Croatia’s midfield was also excellent (and Brazil extremely accommodating) about winning the ball in the attacking half. I lost track of how many times Brazil got caught in possession in terribly dangerous locations. But it was a lot.

For Brazil, Fred was pretty useless (apart from his dive) and Hulk wasn’t much better. The defense was weak. Julio Cesar looked hesitant and weak on a bunch of shots. And they gave up possession in dangerous spots WAY too easily. They got the three points because of some terrible refereeing and some terrible goalkeeping.

So, on the first count, I hate it when the ref becomes the story, but there’s really no way around it here. Things were locked at 1-1 and Brazil really didn’t look like they had any path to another goal, when a penalty was awarded for absolutely nothing. I often try to remember just how fast things move and just how hard it is to keep track of everything. But in this case it looked like a dive the first time and every time after. Just a terrible decision to award a penalty. And he made a bunch of other questionable calls, including several that were just as game-changing. Disallowing the potential second Croatian goal was a 60/40 call, so I can’t complain about that one too much. But it sure seemed like there was a foul in the dis-possession that led to Brazil’s third goal. I haven’t been able to see a good enough replay of it to be sure, but he was clattered into from behind and knocked to the ground. Without that, Oscar doesn’t get the chance to shoot.

Then there’s Pletikosa, the hapless Croatian keeper, who was at fault to some degree on all three of the goals. What he was doing on Oscar’s shot, I have no idea. I guess he was just surprised that it was poked? But a quality keeper will stop that shot much more often than not.

Given all that, I’ve already seen a number of comments saying that Brazil were terrible, or shouldn’t be considered favorites anymore. While there’s no denying they didn’t look great today, that seems an overreaction. Their defense will be better, Oscar was superb, Neymar showed some real class. And for a few stretches they looked VERY good. The 10-15 leading up to their first goals they were slashing through Croatia. And they looked excellent to close out the first half, too.  I still think they’re more likely than not to make the semifinals…and anything is possible from there.

Predictions for tomorrow:

• Mexico 1 – 1 Cameroon
• Spain 1 – 1 Netherlands
• Chile 3 – 1 Australia

I could see any of the three results in the first game, and possibly in the second one (though I would be a bit surprised if the Dutch win).  It’s hard to see anything but a Chile win, though.  If they want to advance from this group they absolutely must beat Australia, and it sure wouldn’t hurt to do so by a big margin.

Some rambling thoughts, interspersed with some cool World Cup facts that I’ve discovered in the past few days.

* Brazil is responsible for 11% of all victories in World Cup history. They’ve won 67 times.  Meanwhile, the 47 least-winning teams in World Cup history combined have fewer wins than them. The teams are Scotland (4), Japan (4), Peru (4), Cameroon (4), Nigeria (4), Bulgaria (3), Northern Ireland (3), Colombia (3), Costa Rica (3), Ecuador (3), Ireland (2), South Africa (2), Morocco (2), Norway (2), Australia (2), Senegal (2), East Germany (2), Algeria (2), Saudi Arabia (2), Ukraine (2), Ivory Coast (2), Tunisia (1), Wales (1), Iran (1), Cuba (1), Slovakia (1), Slovenia (1), North Korea (1), Jamaica (1), Greece (1), Honduras (0), New Zealand (0), Angola (0), Israel (0), Egypt (0), Kuwait (0), Trinidad and Tobago (0), Bolivia (0), Iraq (0), Togo (0), Canada (0), Dutch East Indies (0), United Arab Emirates (0), China (0), Haiti (0), Zaire (0), El Salvador (0).

* Speaking of which, my prediction for tomorrow is that Brazil will add to their all-time lead: Brazil 2 – 0 Croatia

* Brazil won their 67 matches in 97 chances. The 47 bottom teams took 369 chances to get 66 wins.

* Brazil has scored the most goals in World Cup history (210) but is only four ahead of Germany.  Brazil has been the all-time leading scorers in the tournament ever since 1950, but Germany has been on their heels most of that time, usually within about 10 goals of catching them, and getting as close as just 3 goals away in 1990.

* Further thoughts on the US team: I’m still not super-optimistic, but the more I’ve thought about the system that we’re playing (a diamond midfield), I’m getting a little bit more enthused. My general feeling is that international teams who ‘overperform’ almost always do so because they function as a coherent unit. They get guys to play roles, rather than just relying on individual talent. And this diamond really does capitalize on that idea. Beckerman is a severely limited player, who is almost certainly not one of the four or five best US midfielders. But he is tremendously disciplined and will play the very specific role he’s been given very well. We don’t really have any great wingers, nor do we have all that much pace. Which is bad because we’re probably going to be trying to play on the counter a bunch. But this diamond formation facilitates that. Altidore isn’t really very good at holding up play and giving the other attackers time to run into things. And there’s no getting around that being a problem. But the diamond helps a bit by making Bradley a much easier option for holding up play in the midfield. I still think we’ll be three-and-out, but I’m starting to convince myself that it wouldn’t be totally crazy if they make it out of the group.

* Italy has the most draws in World Cup history. This is not remotely surprising. Mexico has the most losses (24).  Which is impressive in a sense; you have to be consistently pretty good to rack up that many losses.  Germany and Argentina, for example, are tied for second with 20 losses.  But Germany picked up those losses while winning 48 more games than Mexico.

* The 538 predictions are useless. Don’t pay any attention to them. It includes a ton of stupid or indeterminate inputs that seem to have created some positive feedbacks, throwing some of their predictions beyond the realm of counter-intuitive into utterly absurd.  There is absolutely zero chance that Brazil is an 88% chance to win each of their group games. That’s a ludicrous result that calls the whole thing into doubt.  If you want a more helpful model, check out Michael Caley’s.  It is better because it attempts to do less, making it a useful starting point for conversation rather than an incredibly complex GIGO system.

* Over the past three World Cups, only four teams have lost their opening match and still escaped the group. One is Spain in 2010, who lost their first match and then only conceded one more goal on their way to victory. The other three were Ghana in 2006, Ukraine in 2006, and Turkey in 2002. Ghana lost to Italy, who went on to win. Turkey lost to Brazil, who also went on to win. Basically: if you lose your opening match, you better be the best team in the world or have lost to the best team in the world. Otherwise, you’re pretty much toast.

World Tour (Weezy, Wale, Dre) – Brenton Duvall

Argentina – Tokyo Police Club

We’ve waited 1,428 days since Andres Iniesta scored the winning goal for Spain.  And now there are just a couple more days left until Brazil takes the pitch against Croatia, and the World Cup bestows its wonderful presence on us for a month.

This post will cover my predictions for each group, and some rather pointless speculation about what might happen in the knockout stage if my guesses about the groups were to pan out.  I’ll admit up front that I’m a little bit less plugged into things than I was four years ago, when I felt like I could speak pretty confidently about most of the teams in the competition.  This time around, there are a lot of young talents that I know of but don’t really know much about, and I fully expect that some of them will be absolute revelations to me.  So take my opinions and predictions with the appropriately big grain of salt.

One big theme, I think, is going to be the overwhelming dominance of Europe and South America.  I’m predicting zero North American teams, zero African teams, and only one Asian team to get out of the group stage.  Most likely, another one or two will slip in.  But I really think that the top 10-12 teams in this tournament come from the two power continents.  And a lot of the African and North American teams, in particular, are a bit weaker than they were four years ago.  If I’m right, it could well be a bloodbath for those confederations.

Group A (Brazil, Croatia, Mexico, Cameroon)

Brazil is clearly the cream of the crop here.  But I have a hard time placing just how good this team really is. I suppose they are mild favorites, but there are a lot of questions about them. Neymar is good, but can he carry the team?  They’ve got great attacking fullbacks, but will they be exposed on defense?  I’m not fully convinced by Oscar and Hulk. Will they regret not really having a top-class center forward? But those are questions for the second round. They should win the group at a canter.  Second place is a toss-up. I think Croatia is the strongest of the three, certainly on the evidence of their recent results. Mexico was atrocious in qualifying and hasn’t looked much better since.  But for all that, they’ve got a lot of talent so it wouldn’t shock me to see them advance.

• 1st: Brazil
• 2nd: Croatia

Group B (Spain, Netherlands, Chile, Australia)

Spain are the current holders of…basically everything worth winning in world football (World Cup, European champions, two Spanish teams were in the Champions League final, they won the Europa League, and so on).  Their cycle is starting to reach its conclusion, so I wouldn’t quite call them favorites to repeat.  But it’s also hard to argue against them. Their defense is a little shaky, particular against set pieces.  And their strikers all have question marks.  And Xavi doesn’t quite have the legs anymore.  But there is just so much talent in this team that their second-string would still be one of the five or six best in the tournament.  A lot of people seem to be down on the Dutch, but I think they’re pretty strong. Their defense is mostly drawn from the Eredivisie, which is a red flag. But they have some of the best attacking talent in the world and if they can gel could once again threaten to finally win a cup for themselves.  I suppose that means I’m tipping Chile to miss out here, which is a tough call.  They are an excellent team, and will be difficult to play. In almost any other group, they’d be likely to advance. Just not this one.

• 1st: Spain
• 2nd: Netherlands

Group C (Colombia, Greece, Ivory Coast, Japan)

Colombia is everyone’s dark horse for this tournament, and I suppose they are for me, too. Even without Falcao. I could actually see any two teams advance here, but my gut tells me that Colombia is too solid to lose to any of these teams, which will get them first place.  I think Ivory Coast is just a couple years too late.  Apart from Yaya Toure, who is one of the very small number of players that could argue for being third best in the world (behind Ronaldo and Messi).  He can dominate a game like almost no one else, so it’s hard to argue against them.  But most of the supplemental parts are much weaker than the past several iterations of this team. So I’m tempted to go with them, but am going to stick with Japan.  Now, I’m not nearly as high on them as I was 12-18 months ago.  Some of their key players had pretty down years (Keisuke Honda and Shinji Kagawa in particular).  But they strike me as the most fluid team in the group, and I make them slight favorites to take second place. Greece will be Greece and I will hate them.  And they certainly could lumber their way to a victory and a draw and a berth in the second round.  I certainly hope not, though.

• 1st: Colombia
• 2nd: Japan

Group D (Uruguay, Costa Rica, England, Italy)

I weirdly think this England team is sneakily good.  They’ve got a lot of in-form players, and the weight of expectations seems to be pretty low.  Their back line is solid (well, except for right back) and they’ve got a couple attackers who have hit their stride at exactly the right time (Sturridge, Sterling).  Honestly, if they just handed this team over to the Liverpool contingent, they could be quite good.  What will drag them down is lack of control in the midfield, and an over-reliance on Wayne Rooney—who is a world class player in some respects but doesn’t fit into this particular team, and is unreliable even at his best.  I massively under-rated Uruguay four years ago, and I’m going to do it again this time around. If Suarez is fully fit and on his game, they could win the group. But if not, I don’t see it. Apart from him, I think this team is much weaker than last time around.  Italy will be Italy, I suppose. Honestly, they don’t seem too impressive for me.  Who is going to score goals for them? And their backline is as rickety as its been in many a year. Still, they’re Italy. Costa Rica is not very good and will be lucky to get a single point.

• 1st:  England
• 2nd: Italy

Group E (Switzerland, Ecuador, France, Honduras)

Oh, France, will your good fortune never cease?  FIFA changed the rules of the draw right before it took place, and stuck Italy in the extra bin, rather than France who should have been there.  Which meant Italy got a MUCH tougher group. And here is France, who just have to beat a good-but-unexciting Switzerland, a team that dominates at home in the mountains but is not very impressive elsewhere (Ecuador), and another rotten team from CONCACAF (Honduras).  After 2010 and 2002, I will believe anything about France’s potential to screw up, but I’ll still pick them to win this group with ease.  And hopefully be proven wrong again.

• 1st: France
• 2nd: Ecuador

Group F (Argentina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iran, Nigeria)

Nigeria and Iran might pick up a point from each other, but should be pretty well toasted by the other two in this group.  I’m picking Argentina to win the whole thing, partly because I think they are very very good.  And partly because they have the easiest route to the semifinals of anyone in the world.  Win this group, beat the second place team from the very weak Group E, and get a quarterfinal match against someone like Portugal or Belgium.  They’ve built this team around Messi, and I think he’s going to finally win the World Cup that will cement his place among the all-time greats.  Along with him, there’s Aguero (who is luminescent in his own right), Di Maria (who was the best player in the Champions League final a couple weeks ago), and Higuain.  This team is going to attack.  A lot.  Which means the other key player is Javier Mascherano, who is going to be responsible for shutting down the inevitable counterattacks.  Argentina should be fun to watch.

• 1st: Argentina
• 2nd: Bosnia-Herzegovina

Group G (Germany, Portugal, USA, Ghana)

And here are our boys.  I have to say: I’m not optimistic.  I certainly think this team has it in them to beat Ghana and nick a draw from Portugal and/or Germany.  But each of those results is at least a little optimistic.  I would not be at all shocked if we only get one point (or even zero) from this group.  The key player, by a mile, is Michael Bradley.  If we do well it’s going to be because Bradley is able to exert himself on the game.  He has the vision that no one else has got.  We could also benefit enormously from the good version of Altidore (who was totally absent with Sunderland this year but has re-appeared in the last two warmup games).  But we’re relying heavily on Kyle Beckerman to preserve our shape.  And, I mean, I like Beckerman.  But…against the German attack…I’m just not sure it’s going to work.  Germany has lost Reus, which is a real blow for them, but as with Spain, they could run out their second line and still have a decent shot of winning this thing.  If they have a genuine weakness, I guess it’s at left back?  And possibly their midfield (especially without Reus) might not be quite as strong as one might have expected.  Khedira is barely back from injury, Schweinsteiger doesn’t look nearly as dominant as he did a few years ago, Ozil has blown hot and cold, etc.  But that’s measured against a VERY high standard.  They might well have the best midfield in the world, even with those concerns.  Portugal is going to live or die based on Ronaldo, who is the best player in the world right now (and only partly because Messi has had a ‘down’ year).  The rest of their team is very good, but if Ronaldo dominates like he’s capable of, Portugal could end up adding their name to short list of countries that have won a World Cup.  Ghana has knocked the US out of the last two tournaments and I’m terrified they’re going to (effectively) do so again this time around.  I think this team is a fair step weaker than the 2010 version, but the US probably is, too.  That first game is going to be mighty tense.

• 1st: Germany
• 2nd: Portugal

Group H (Belgium, Algeria, Russia, South Korea)

Belgium are the hipster pick, and I’m going to go right along with it. Their golden generation has all hit stride at the same time, and might well be a hurricane through this tournament. They’ve got a great keeper, great central defenders, a great midfield, and talented strikers.  They don’t really have any natural fullbacks, which could be their weak spot, but even that is compensated by their strength and canniness in the central midfield. This isn’t a team that has to rely on width to pick apart a defense.  If Lukaku were to get injured, that could cause real problems for them, since Benteke is already out and they don’t really have another option to play the lone striker role.  As for the other teams, Russia has not impressed me much when I’ve watched them, but I don’t have much faith in South Korea or Algeria being able to knock them out.

• 1st: Belgium
• 2nd: Russia

Those results would set up these second round matches:

• Brazil over the Netherlands – This is a really terrible draw for Brazil, to face the team who knocked them out last time this early. But I think they’ll eke out a win here
• Colombia over Italy – The Azzurri will be beaten at their own game in this one.
• Spain over Croatia – It’ll probably be a straightforward 1-0, with Spain controlling possession and doing just enough to get their needed goal
• England over Japan – I think Hodgson is particularly well suited to shut down a team like Japan. A comfortable 2-0
• France over Bosnia – Ugh. I’m still picking France.  I really like Bosnia a lot, just don’t think they’ll have quite enough. This could very easily go to penalties
• Germany over Russia – An easy win for the Germans
• Argentina over Ecuador – Argentina thumped Ecuador 4-0 in qualifying. Could easily see that again here
• Portugal over Belgium – Another big match between two very good teams.  I make Portugal the slight favorites, but it really could go either way.

For the quarterfinals:

• Brazil over Colombia
• Spain over England
• Germany over France
• Argentina over Portugal

Yes, I’m just picking the consensus top-four teams to make the semifinals.  I wanted to go with someone else, but I just can’t quite justify it.  I would say that eventual victor has an 80-85% chance of coming from these four.  Maybe a little more.  The only other teams I give a meaningful shot to are the Netherlands, Belgium, and Portugal.  Maybe France and Colombia.  Everyone else is in ‘hey, Greece won the Euros so anything is possible, right?’ territory.

For the semifinals, I have the South American countries beaten their European opposition, which sets up an Argentina-Brazil match for the ages in the final.  And I believe in the power of Messi, so I’m going to pick Argentina to hoist the cup.