I once had my football dreams

The Boy Done Good – Billy Bragg

Tomorrow is the first game of the World Cup, without a doubt the biggest sporting event on the planet.  But it’s much more than that, too.  It’s a chance to prove that nationalism can be expressed positively rather than negatively, where feelings of attachment to arbitrary lines becomes a means for expressing mutual excitement and respect.  It’s a chance to see multi-millionaire athletes giving absolutely everything they have–risking an injury that could devastate their money-making capabilities–to win a game with very little actual monetary stake.

It’s a chance to see those same multi-millionaire, world famous names (Ronaldo or Messi or Henry) rubbing elbows with people that no one has ever heard of (quick, name 3 players for New Zealand).  It’s an opportunity for upsets that defy belief, for some scrappy team to overcome a side where every starting player makes more per year than the whole squad combined.

It’s a chance to watch colonial powers taking on their former colonies–and often being beaten soundly.

For those of us in the US, it’s also a wonderful chance to experience what it feels like to simply root for your nation without feeling guilty, but also without shame.  If the Olympics often feels depressing because it’s dominated by the political and economic superpowers, there’s something magical about a sport loved by people in every corner of the globe where the US and China are far from the top.  But where the US used to be a bit of an embarrassment, that’s no longer the case either.  The current batch of players has every reason to think they can make it to the second round, maybe further.  But they also have absolutely no assurances that they won’t get bounced out after three quick losses.  In short, we’re on the same plane as pretty much everyone else: plucky underdogs hoping to make good in the shadow of the big guns.

But more than anything else, it’s about simply watching the beautiful game unfold, and knowing that you’re sharing the experience with literally billions of people around the planet.

I’ll be posting a lot over the next month, about matches, about players, about great goals, hopefully about some brilliant performances from Messrs Dempsey and Bradley and Donovan, but before things kick off, I figured I can put on my prognosticator’s hat and offer my predictions.

Group A: This is one of the toughest groups to call.  You never want to bet against the host nation, even when they’re as mediocre as South Africa.  And Uruguay is an interesting team, too.  But I think people underestimate both France and Mexico.  Yes, they each had rotten qualifying campaigns (and France is there illegitimately, of course), but in the end talent wins out, I think.  And France is LOADED.  Mexico, also, is full of some really great players.  Think of them as Spain-lite.  If you want a true dark horse pick to win the whole thing, Mexico might be the one.  1st: France. 2nd: Mexico.

Group B: For Argentina, see my comments above about France and Mexico.  Except multiply them.  I know people want to laugh about Maradona, but this is a ridiculously good squad.  The attackers get all the press, of course (only Spain *might* have better players up front) but I think the defense is a bit underrated, too.  Apart from Brazil and Spain, I think Argentina has the best chance to win the whole thing.  Of the other three teams here, I could see any of them qualifying.  My heart says Nigeria will scrape through, but my head is telling me that Greece will be able to stifle their way to a second place finish.  In this case, my heart wins.  1st: Argentina.  2nd: Nigeria.

Group C: The big one.  This England team isn’t as good as the 2006 version except for the possibility of a healthy and more mature Wayne Rooney.  I think they’ll really suffer at some point for not having a genuine holding midfielder (Barry is both injured and not that great at the role anyways) and for their weakness at goalkeeper.  But I don’t see either of those things being a problem in the group stages where they should be able to steamroll over the relatively weak opposition.  I’d like to think the US might be able to sneak a victory–and anything is possible–but honestly I just don’t see how we can contain Rooney.  I also am absolutely terrified at the prospect of Cole and Johnson bombing forward and destroying our fullbacks.  I think that the only hope is to play 4-5-1, try to stifle the game in the midfield, and don’t venture forward much and risk losing shape. It doesn’t make me happy to go into the opening match hoping that we can successfully get 10 men behind the ball. But I also don’t want to lose 4-1.  Especially since I think the group could come down to both the US and Slovenia losing to England, beating Algeria, and drawing with each other. Which would make goal difference pretty huge.  I’m really worried that the structure of the matches (where we get England first when they’ll be chomping at the bit and might bring the hammer down) might be the doom of the US.  1st: England.  2nd: Slovenia.  But I hope I’m wrong.

Group D: Group G is usually considered the ‘group of death’ but I think this one is equal to it.  All four of these teams could make a deep run in the tournament.  You can never rule out Germany, and Serbia has every chance to stun some people.  They’ve got a ridiculously good back line and some great attacking talent.  Ghana took a hit in losing Essien (who I think is one of the 5 or 10 best players in the world) which may doom them, but even without him they’ve got a great team.  They did perfectly fine without him at the Africa Cup of Nations for example.  Australia made the last 16 in 2006 and looks to be as good or better this time around–though if Cahill is out they might be in trouble.  In another group, they’d do well.  In this one, they’ll probably finish last.  1st: Serbia. 2nd: Germany.

Group E: The Netherlands should dominate this group.  Their weakness is with the back four, but a) their holding midfielders are quality and will buttress the defense b) they’ll control enough possession that this won’t be as threatening as it would against the major powers and c) the other teams in this group just don’t have the attacking talent to really threaten them.  Denmark is underrated by a lot of people.  They qualified out of a tough group, handling Portugal pretty easily.  At the same time, their best player is Bendtner, who is better than his detractors will admit, but is not world class.  Cameroon have Eto’o, who is world class, but I don’t think they have the right cast around him to utilize his abilities.  He’s best at moving off the ball and getting into space, tearing apart defenses, and keeping the game open.  But he needs quality service for that to work.  If he consistently has to go back to pick up the ball himself, most of his talents will be wasted.  As for Japan, I wouldn’t be shocked if they made it through, but I haven’t seen a lot to really impress me from them either.  1st: Netherlands.  2nd: Cameroon.

Group F: The easiest group, I think.  Italy is pretty weak by their high standards, but they should have no trouble topping this group.  New Zealand will be lucky to do as well as Trinidad and Tobago did in 2006.  Which means the battle for second place is between Paraguary and Slovakia.  I don’t know enough about either to really make a qualified guess there, but my gut says that Slovaka will pull it out. 1st: Italy. 2nd: Slovakia.

Group G: Despite the ‘group of death’ label, I don’t see this one as too hard to call.  Brazil seems pretty unstoppable at this point, with really the only weakness being a reliance on an out-of-form Kaka to serve as playmaker.  But I just don’t see Portugal or Ivory Coast exploiting that.  So Brazil wins comfortably and North Korea seems unlikely to challenge the big fish in the group.  Even before Drogba got hurt I thought Portugal would probably pull this off.  Now that Drogba is either out, or is going to have to play injured, I think that’s an even easier call.  1st: Brazil. 2nd: Portugal.

Group H: Spain wins this one at a canter.  I’m not sure any of them is better than Poland–who Spain just dismantled 6-0.  Any of the other three could very easily take second.  I think Honduras is better than people give them credit for, but Chile is my pick for second.  If for no other reason than their fascinating tactics.  1st: Spain.  2nd: Chile.

Assuming all those predictions hold, that sets up the following Second Round matches:

• France over Nigeria
• England over Germany
• Netherlands over Slovakia
• Brazil over Chile
• Argentina over Mexico
• Serbia over Slovenia
• Cameroon over Italy
• Spain over Portugal

For the quarterfinals:

• England over France
• Argentina over Serbia
• Brazil over Netherlands
• Spain over Cameroon

Semis:

• Argentina over Spain
• Brazil over England (John Terry missing the penalty and sending Brazil through)

And after all that, I think Brazil wins their 6th title.

Golden Boot: David Villa

Golden Ball: Kaka.  I think he’ll play like he did a couple years ago for Milan. But I also think he’ll get this almost by default since the real winner should be the entire back line but no one is going to stand out enough to deserve it.  Plus, no one is going to award the Golden Ball to a defender from Brazil.