Crazy Races – The Dirty Diamonds
We’re getting close to the point where I’m going to have to start taking this Gingrich thing seriously. But we are not there yet.
I know what the polls say, but can we all have a reality check for a moment? Other than the fact that the Iowa Caucus is less than a month away is there any reason to take this much more seriously than we took Bachman and Cain and Trump when they were leading? We’re talking about Newt Gingrich here. The guy is toxic.
I’ve been trying to come up with an analogy to clarify just how insane they would have to be to nominate him. One would be if in 1992 the Democrats had decided they really wanted to go with Walter Mondale. Or if this year there was a strong primary challenge to Obama coming from, say, John Kerry.
Newt was drummed out of his job as Speaker in the 90s for being generally incompetent. And while he was on his way out, he decided to impeach Clinton, which ended catastrophically for him. He has made millions lobbying for industries that everyone hates. He has notoriously big problems with marital fidelity. He has a record of supporting all kinds of things that supposedly will sink Romney (cap and trade, the individual mandate, etc.) And he’s just a freaking lunatic.
I’ll defer to the always-excellent Jonathan Bernstein on this point, pointing out that all the theorists of the Newt-surge need to remember that many other candidates have gone through this same process.
I don’t doubt that Romney is worried about this, and has some work to do to clamp down on the voters. But I still find it VERY hard to believe that when people actually show up to vote they’re still going to be on the Newt-train.
And speaking as a Democrat, I really hope they aren’t just that crazy. I think running against Gingrich would be a dream for the Obama team, but this is an instance where my commitment to the broader structures of our system overwhelms my strategic interest. It would a) be an unmitigated catastrophe if this crazy man stumbled into the White House and b) would drag us ever closer to the final death knell of American democracy if one of the two major parties decided at this moment in time to let him anywhere near the nomination. For the sake of all of us, I really hope they just nominate Romney, even if that means a higher risk of Obama losing.
I still think there is, at best, a 5-10% chance of this happening. And I would frankly give better odds on Perry emerging as the nominee still. And I still think that if Pawlenty hadn’t dropped out, he might well have won. But that’s how predictions go…