MA special election

Busy putting the finishing touches on that paper I mentioned a week or two ago, but I thought I could drop by to put on my prediction hat once again. Here goes:

Martha Coakley will win the Massachusetts special election next Tuesday, and by a moderately comfortable margin.

What does ‘comfortable’ mean? I’ve been saying for a week or two now that I expected a double-digit victory. The number of uncomfortable polls these days means that I guess I should dial down the confidence a little bit. But I’d still be pretty surprised if she wins by less than 6 or 7 points.

Why do I believe this? It’s pretty simple. The election is happening in Massachusetts. Martha Coakley is a Democrat. What’s more, she’s running to fill Ted Kennedy’s seat. In the month when health care reform (Kennedy’s signature issue for literally decades) is about to get voted on. In a Senate which literally has zero votes to spare.

That’s about it, really. Polling is notoriously difficult in a special election when the question of who is a ‘likely voter’ is all that much more difficult to answer. So while the polling is troubling – and even a 10 point victory would be closer than it ‘should’ be – I just can’t see this one going the wrong way.

I could imagine a perfect storm – where the swirl of support for Brown developed about 10 days later and he hit the peak of his support on Election Day – knocking her off. But this thing has become nationalized. Everyone *knows* it’s going to be close now, which means a lot of those folks who might normally sit it out (on the theory that it’s cold in Massachusetts in January and the Democrat is obviously going to win regardless) will have a major incentive to show up at the polls.

Anyways, here’s hoping I don’t get proven wrong on this one…