A Europewide Search For Love – Ballboy
World Champions no longer, Italy are out. So are the 2006 runners up. Spain, England, and Germany were/are in serious danger. Denmark got thumped by a Japan team that I used to think was pretty unimpressive. Of all the European teams, only the Dutch have made it through the group stage without a moment of crisis, and they are playing the dullest, most boring football they’ve had in decades.
Meanwhile, three South American teams have won their groups, while the other two might well do so tomorrow. The US won its group, while Mexico also qualified. Two Asian teams have qualified. The team from Oceania didn’t lose a game.
Down is up, left is right, the ball is a square, and the Germans missed a penalty. What is going on?!
Slovakia 3 – 2 Italy
Paraguay 0 – 0 New Zealand
I should have stuck with my 0-0 predictions in these games. Would have got one of them right. The less said about that one the better. The other, though, was one of the strangest and most fascinating games of the tournament. Up until about 2/3 of the way through Italy looked completely hopeless and I began to wonder if there was a curse on Western Europe. In the last 20 minutes they were amazing – showing the vitality of an Italy side of old. Too little, too late, though. Still, with a bit of help from the esteemed Howard Webb they still might have come through. Sadly for them, it was not to be. Instead, a Slovakia team that bored me to tears in their first two games has emerged triumphant and Italy has finished at the bottom of their group.
Remember, of course, that Group F was supposed to be the ‘group of life’ – the easiest possible group. The group that even a terrible Italy team couldn’t help but win. While their collapse wasn’t as loud or as stupid as the French one, it’s verging on the same degree. Especially when you consider that they have a genuinely world class manager in Lippi, as compared to the Clown Brigade who was running France.
If you’ll permit me just a tiny bit of schadenfreude: how do you like that decision to play for Italy now, Mr. Rossi?
Denmark 1 – 3 Japan
Cameroon 1 – 2 Netherlands
In attempting to watch both these games on ESPN 3 while also dealing with debate camp, I managed to miss most of the big moments. The big story here is that–if my memory is correct–Japan scored more free kick goals in this game than the entire rest of the tournament. They were both deliciously taken. And they pretty much had the run of the game so the result was well-deserved. I didn’t catch all that much of the Dutch but it didn’t seem like they did a whole lot to impress–apart from yet again getting the three points. Which this year is actually quite impressive.
These results provide yet another incentive for Spain to win their group: not only would they miss Brazil but their possible quarterfinal match-up would be Japan or Paraguay. Like I said, crazy tournament. If Spain can’t win their group, it would leave two routes to the semifinals populated entirely by teams that virtually no one would have taken for the quarters much less the semis.
Imagine if one quarter of the bracket contained the Dutch, Spain, and Brazil, while their opposing side was filled by Switzerland, Paraguay, Japan, and Portugal. And we already talked yesterday about Argentina/Mexico/Germany/England looking across the water at Uruguay/South Korea/USA/Ghana.
Absolutely nuts.
Predictions for tomorrow:
- Portugal 1 – 1 Brazil
- North Korea 0 – 2 Ivory Coast
- Chile 1 – 2 Spain
- Switzerland 1 – 0 Honduras
I don’t see Brazil and Portugal completely giving up on playing, but I can’t see that game have a ton of energy. As long as Ivory Coast don’t score 3 or 4 early goals, Portugal won’t have any urgency and Brazil won’t worry too much either.
The real fireworks are in Group H, where I think three teams will finish on 6 points and it will all come down to goal difference. If the results I’ve predicted happen, Chile will beat the Swiss on the goals-scored tiebreaker.
There’s all kinds of complications there though. If I’ve sorted it out correctly: if Spain wins, the Swiss absolutely MUST score more goals than Chile. A set of 1-0s would also send Chile through on head-to-head tiebreakers. If Chile can get a result, the Swiss just need to get a better result than Spain. To win the group, the Swiss would need for them and Spain to win, and for both the Spain margin of victory to be smaller AND for the number of Spanish goals to be smaller.
Actually, I’m going to create a cheat-sheet for when I’m watching this to keep it all sorted out in my head.
The question that remains is whether Europe can restore just a little bit of its dignity by sending three more teams through, or whether Chile will make it 5/5 for South American sides. If Chile does get through, and if South America ends up with 4 of the 8 teams in the quarterfinals–a very real possibility–will it finally be time to seriously consider stripping UEFA of a spot or two? I lean towards saying no. Europe was extremely dominant in 2006, so this may just bit a matter of small sample size. In addition, several very good European teams didn’t make it. Croatia, Russia, and Bosnia are certainly top-class teams. The Czech youngsters will be pretty good by 2014, I think. Turkey remains good. Etc.
Final set of group games tomorrow. And then we get to start watching knockout games on Saturday. Very very exciting.