So I missed the entirety of the Argentina game (a shame because it featured the most goals so far and, once again, some apparently exquisite play from Messi) and a big chunk of the second game because I was flying cross country on a red-eye. So the comments today will focus less on the games and more on the status of the groups.
Argentina 4 – 1 South Korea
Messi is living up to the hype. Sure he hasn’t scored a goal yet, but he was crucial to several today and the other highlights show him doing everything he was doing for Barca. My prediction that Argentina would be better without Veron seems to have been borne out though.
Greece 2 – 1 Nigeria
Poor Nigeria. They were apparently cruising and then went a man down thanks to a stupid, stupid move. My thoughts on that: it’s infuriating the ‘simulation’ employed by the Greece player. He was barely touched but went down like he had been kicked in the penis. Kaita is an idiot for lashing out, an deserved to be sent off, probably, but in a just world Katsouranis would get a three match ban too.
Even with 10 men, Nigeria still looked pretty dangerous and had a couple good chances. And the winning goal they let in was a bit of a fluke. Poor Vincent Enyeama once again turned in a world class goalkeeping performance, but made a big mistake. Unlike the previous keeper errors he didn’t simply let the ball in the net, but he did push it weakly back out in front of the goal where the Greeks put it in the net. It wasn’t a mistake of the same degree, but he really needed to do better. Even if the swerving or confusion let him get beat, he needs to position himself to push it out away from the goal.
This doesn’t knock Nigeria out entirely. There’s a good chance that Argentina will beat Greece. Even though they’ve already basically won the group, they could probably play their reserve side and comfortably win. Assuming Argentina does win, that makes the Nigeria-South Korea game basically a one game playoff. A win or draw gets South Korea through, while a win for Nigeria puts them through.
I’d give South Korea the best odds of getting through, while Nigeria has a slightly better chance than Greece.
France 0 – 2 Mexico
As someone who picked France to win the group, and who was insistent that their individual talent would overwhelm all the various shenanigans around the team, I am so glad to have been wrong. They shouldn’t be here anyways, and going out due to total self-implosion is a glorious way for it to all end. Seriously, France looked terrible. Mexico, however, displayed a lot of the skill and pace that makes me think they could have a serious run in this tournament.
You’d have to favor Uruguay and Mexico to make it out now. If they can contrive for a draw, they’re both guaranteed to make it. Still, France and South Africa aren’t completely out. If both of the remaining games are blowouts the goal difference might get overwhelmed. It would actually be just like the French to make it through this way–probably on a late goal from a Henry handball.
I sound more vindictive here than I really feel. I do actually like a lot of the French players a lot, and do think that it is always nice when the best players make it out of the groups. But the Irish team is probably my favorite in the world apart from the US and Turkey (the ones I draw culturally from), and Kevin Doyle is my favorite non-US player, so I really am looking for some revenge on their part.
Predictions for tomorrow:
- Germany 1 – 1 Serbia
- Slovenia 0 – 0 USA
- England 2 – 1 Algeria
I think Serbia will be far better at smothering that blistering German attack. I think the similar styles of the US and Slovenia are going to produce a boring affair with only a few weak shots on goal from either side. And while I’m going to stick with my pre-tournament guess of 2-1 for the last game, based on what I saw the other day I really wouldn’t be surprised if England came out and absolutely obliterated Algeria, releasing some of their pent up rage and producing a 6-0 or something.
The US game is really make or break for us. A win makes qualification for the second round extremely likely (perhaps allowing us to even lose to Algeria) and gives us a serious shot at winning the group. A loss puts Slovenia through and means we’ll have to rely on one of Slovenia and Algeria to beat England (unlikely). A draw leaves things in our own hands. If that happens and we beat Algeria, the absolute worst case scenario is a draw between England Slovenia putting all three of the teams on 5 points–which would just require us to win by more goals than they get in their draw. And frankly, the risk of that should be enough to ensure England goes for it and gets the win they need to finish first.
My original thought for the group was that England would get 9 points, the US and Slovenia would draw, and each would beat Algeria. Since the US got a point against England, they’re in better straits than my initial predictions which really just means they need to hold serve.