World Cup day twelve – You can stay gone but don’t stay bitter

Catch A Collapsing Star – The Mendonza Line

My predictions have been solid but not great so far, but I’m happy to say I got two spot-on today.  I failed in the first two games, due to continuing to overestimate the ability of talent to trump ridiculousness in the instance of the French, and due to continuing to underestimate the ability of Uruguay.  On the other hand, I perfectly guessed the other two, calling a 2-o for Argentina and a 2-2 draw for Nigeria and South Korea.

Mexico 0 – 1 Uruguay

A lot of people were tipping Uruguay as a dark horse before the tournament, and a lot of people laughed at them after the 0-0 bore-fest they had with France.  Presumably they’re going to get the plaudits they deserve now.  As someone who thought they wouldn’t make it out of the group, the main thing that I’ve been really impressed by is their ability to dominate in either attack or defense as necessary.  Against France they killed the game.  Against South Africa they ran rampant.  Against Mexico, they were strong but precise until they got a lead, after which they set up shop.  Their attacking talent is skillful enough to score on anyone, but also to pose a threat even while the rest of the team is sitting back deep.  The tactical flexibility suggests they can pose a threat to anyone at the tournament.  Combine that with a (relatively) easy draw in the second round, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see them in the semifinals or even the finals.  I still don’t think they have the talent to string together 3 wins against top 10 competition, but…

Mexico simply couldn’t get anything going today.  They were fine, but didn’t pose much of a threat.  I saw them as another potential dark horse team for the semifinals and they’ve got the players to make it happen, but it would take some luck.  And now that they’re up against Argentina, it seems unlikely. That game looks to be wide open and a lot of fun, by the way.   Both teams have skillful, quick attacks (as long as Blanco isn’t playing) and are questionable in defense.

France 1 – 2 South Africa

I guess they can take solace in having scored a goal?  That makes it more impressive than their 2002 flameout, perhaps?

Honestly, the catastrophe that has been the French team is almost literally impossible to overstate.  Lunatic coach, player revolt, terrible performances across the board, embarrassing defending, shocking lack of precision in the attack.  I picked this team to make it to the quarters, and instead they’ve turned in one of the most astonishingly poor performances of any ‘major’ footballing nation in living memory.  Today there was a silly sending-off (a bit harsh, but at this point who is going to feel sympathy for Les Bleus?), a performance that makes ‘lackluster’ seem like a an impossible dream, and to cap it all off the final whistle blowing and Domenech refusing to shake the opposing coach’s hand, for reasons that no one can figure out.  It was stupefying.

It’s gotten to the point where there really is pretty much nothing that would surprise me about this team.  If a zombie Charles de Gaulle rose up out of the pitch in the 75th minute and ate Franck Ribery’s brain, I’d probably just shrug and wonder whether Domenech would bother to substitute for him.

South Africa can bow out with their heads held high.  They performed well against a good Mexico team and beat the reigning runners-up (even if it was in very specific and amazing circumstances), and could have qualified if not for a shellacking from Uruguay.

Nigeria 2 – 2 South Korea
Greece 0 – 2 Argentina

I’ll discuss these two together since I didn’t see either of them. A trip to the Brooklyn Botanical Garden was too enticing to turn down. I don’t feel that I missed that much. The Nigeria/South Korea game sounds like it was good spectacle but not particularly good football, and the other game sounds like it was neither.

I picked Nigeria to come second in this group and they almost managed it.  A terrible, terrible miss from Yakuba was the missing margin for victory and a date with Uruguay.  Instead it will be South Korea, making it out of the group stage for the first time outside of Asia, which is a nice showing for them.  Strangely, they’re the only team that I haven’t watched in the tournament at least once.  I’ve missed maybe 7 or 8 games total and they’ve been in 3 of them.  I’ll definitely have to catch them in their next game then.

Predictions for tomorrow:

• Slovenia 1 – 3 England
• United States 2 – 1 Algeria
• Ghana 1 – 2 Germany
• Australia 0 – 3 Serbia

I won’t say too much about the first two games.  I’m a bit too close to them to really feel objective.  Instead I’ll direct you to an excellent article from Jonathan Wilson about US/Algeria.  It’s tricky knowing what to root for in the other game.  Obviously if the US can win, that’s the best world.  In that case I’d like to see England also win a) because it would give us a chance to win the group and b) because despite all their annoying elements I still kind of like the England team.  But if the US seems like they’re in danger of drawing, obviously we want a draw or Slovenia win.  On the other other hand, a US win combined with a low-scoring draw guarantees us the group.  So I think that’s what I’m hoping for: an early US goal to settle our nerves, and a tense 0-0 in the other game right up until the end.

For Group D: as I’ve said, I predicted all these games before the tournament started, and have almost universally stuck to my guesses.  But I’m changing my prediction in the Ghana/Germany game.  I had it as a 0-0 but after watching them play I simply can’t see that happening.  Add in that it’s a win-or-go-home situation for Germany and I have a feeling it will be feisty.

I think Serbia is going to give us a real performance, but just because I’m picking a big win doesn’t mean I’m not impressed by Australia.  They were quite good against Ghana and could pull off another big result here.