So let’s say your an idealistic progressive voter. You were excited about Obama, but wary of the fact that he seemed to speak in generalities but never seemed truly committed to the left. You’ve grown increasingly aggravated over the last two years as promises have been broken, goals have not been achieved, as sacrifices have been made. The public option is long dead. Gay men and women still can’t serve openly. Guantanamo is open. Executive powers have been marginally restrained, but not really all that much. The stimulus was far smaller than necessary. Financial reform was a lot more toothless than you’d hoped. We continue to wage a (most likely unwinnable) war in Afghanistan and (despite claims) Iraq.
I’ll set aside for a moment whether it’s fair to hold Democrats or Obama to blame for all of those things. I think reasonable people can disagree quite a bit about exactly where and how to apportion responsibility. But it doesn’t really matter for this point. You can believe it’s entirely down to Democratic cowardice, weakness, lack of commitment to genuinely progressive norms, etc.
The point remains: if Democrats lose the House (and especially if they lose the Senate), the “lesson learned” will be that moving to the ‘far left’ is political suicide. The conventional wisdom will quickly solidify that the Tea Party crowd gained so much momentum due to public agreement with their claims about the overreaching of the liberal agenda. They went for too much, too fast.
Now look: we all know that’s poppycock. More stimulus, more spending, would have improved our current economic situation – and it’s amazing how much anger about specific policies tracks with a general anger about the economic situation as a whole. I don’t want to drift too far into accusations of false consciousness here, but the point remains fair. When people say they hate deficits, it doesn’t meant they hate deficits. Ask 10 average American voters whether they’d take a) big deficits and steady growth with declining unemployment or b) smaller deficits with stagnant growth and flatlined unemployment numbers and most are going to choose option A.
All that said, the narrative is the question here, not the underlying reality. Because what we’re concerned with is how to ensure that progressive items remain on the agenda, that we move forward on important items. And the one thing that more or less ensures that the massive movement we saw in this direction in 2006 and 2008 stalls is a massive loss for Democrats in 2010.
Not just because a Republican House is going to be spending too much time impeaching Obama and holding hearings about ACORN to pass cap and trade–although obviously that is a big part of it. But even more because it’s going to take another whole generation before middle of the road Democrats will be willing to believe that a strong left-of-center agenda is politically palatable.
If they see a big loss as caused by overreach, you can bet your bottom dollar that they’ll be even LESS willing to mobilize for your preferred agenda.
The point being: it’s good (great, even) that the blue team is diverse, has a lot of different perspectives, including some who spend a lot of time being outraged at the craven nature of the establishment Dems in Washington. But there’s a big difference between being outraged and holding their feet to the fire and being apathetic. Choosing to not turn out in November because you’re frustrated by the weak sauce is the surest way to produce more of the same.
I know it doesn’t feel like the greatest message. Vote for us so that we don’t spit in your face. But I think it needs to be understood differently. The issue is that a lot of the country is persuadable on some big progressive issues, but isn’t there yet. The best way to enter into that process is to ensure that the elected officials have an incentive to take your position seriously. The best way to do THAT is to be part of their constituency. Don’t give them the easy out. Don’t allow the response: “look, we got health care reform (not perfect, but better than anything we’d managed in the previous 70 years), tons of amazing things in the stimulus bill that have been progressive priorities for years, modest progress on financial reform, we didn’t start any NEW wars, etc. We got all of that and you STILL didn’t vote for me. Well, then what is my motivation to listen to anything you say?”
I’m not saying that argument would be fair, or wouldn’t be. I’m just saying it’s what’s likely to happen. Don’t let it happen. Get motivated for November. Look at the important differences. Remember how much this stuff matters. And make the tough choice to keep pushing the envelope.
Basically: we need to show up big and unified on one day in November so that we can fight with each other for the rest of the two years, and have it MEAN something.