Probably ten times in the last couple days I’ve heard variations on the following argument: “the delegate count is what we really ought to be focusing on. Narrative shouldn’t really matter.” Usually this is accompanied by claims that we shouldn’t focus so much on Michigan, given that Romney is going to win a winner-takes-all contest in Arizona. There is a sense in which this is true. If there is a protracted campaign, ultimately only delegates matter. And it’s also true that a 500-vote victory and a 500-vote loss are almost indistinguishable in a proportional state.
So it’s silly if a narrow victory gives a candidate momentum which a narrow loss would crush.
That said, it is 100% reasonable that people will focus on Michigan tonight. It’s a close vote for one thing, so there’s an actual story. But even more importantly, Michigan is the place where it is still possible for the seemingly inevitable (Romney wins) result can be disrupted. Because let’s face facts, Romney is still the prohibitive favorite to win the nomination.
People seem to think the proper analogy here is Obama/Clinton where narrative turned out to matter very little and delegate math mattered a lot. And I guess it could still turn out that way. But there really is still not a lot of evidence to think that’s the situation. The reason why narrative is a perfectly legitimate thing to focus on in covering the race right now is that Santorum is dancing on a tightrope and will have to sustain it in order to pose a real threat. He has to continue convincing people that he’s a real candidate to win the nomination or the whole thing will turn into a damp squib.