There are four quadrants of the bracket, each of which will produce one semifinalist. Today I’ll briefly preview each, and give a quick thought or two about what I’m looking for in these matchups.
I should also say, for what it’s worth, that my pre-tournament predictions have mostly held up regarding the structure of the bracket – apart from one quadrant where literally everything is wrong. I got a lot of the second-place teams wrong but two of the quarterfinal matchups I predicted are still reasonably likely to occur (Brazil-Colombia and France-Germany), while Argentina remains the favorite to march to their semifinal berth as well. But in the other quadrant…holy hell, what happened?
The South American Massacre
Brazil – Chile
Colombia – Uruguay
Somehow four of the five remaining South American teams have clustered in this one corner of the bracket. Which is rather unfortunate since I would have really liked to get some more data on the comparative quality of the European and South American teams. Sadly, there will be a bloodbath of CONMEBOL teams here and only one will emerge with the chance to take on (most likely) Germany or France for a berth in the final.
I will stick with my pre-tournament guesses here, with Brazil emerging victorious, beating Colombia in the quarterfinals. But I think it’s a close call in both games. Current odds seem to put Brazil as roughly 75% to go through against Chile which seems very high. Chile is difficult to play against and I could see them frustrating Brazil a great deal. Meanwhile Colombia have been very impressive (admittedly against pretty weak opposition). I expect them to beat a Suarez-less Uruguay and to give Brazil a great deal of trouble.
The Western Front
France – Nigeria
Germany – Algeria
France are heavy favorites against Nigeria, and justifiably so. Nigeria were, by a pretty large margin, the least impressive team that managed to advance (with only Greece as a competitor). They’re not terrible by any means, but they will really struggle to generate goals and I have a hard time seeing them holding France to less than two.
Germany should also be expected to beat Algeria, who I anticipate will fall back into the more defensive tactics they employed against Belgium. I hope they don’t because they more attacking approach they took in their latter two games was a lot more fun. But I feel like Germany would clinically dispatch them if they show too much space. So this should be somewhat similar to Germany’s victory over the US yesterday. Relatively dull, with a modest chance of Algeria springing a surprise result, but likely to end in a German win.
After that, I’ll once again stick with my pre-tournament prediction. France have looked very good, but I still think Germany is more cohesive on the attack, less reliant on standout individual performances. But that’s a 55/45 sort of game.
Um, What Happened Here?
Netherlands – Mexico
Costa Rica – Greece
So, yeah. I only predicted that one of these teams would even reach the knockout round (Holland, who I thought would finish second and lose to Brazil). Whoever wins in Mexico-Netherlands has to be considered the favorite to advance to the semifinals. Greece are pretty bleh. And while Costa Rica was very good, I think they got pretty darn lucky, too. Playing Uruguay without Suarez, playing Italy after Manaus (and bereft of tactical ideas). Still, I don’t see any of the teams in this group being as good as basically any other team that will be in the quarterfinals. If Costa Rica can beat Italy, I see no reason to think they couldn’t manage it against the Dutch, too.
I guess I’m going to go out on a bit of a limb here and say that Mexico advances to the semifinals. The quality is there for them, and for once it all seems to be clicking together. I can’t see them fully containing Robben – particularly the danger of his pace – but I think they’re far less likely to lose shape and get overrun. I think this is the year they finally break the curse of the Round of 16.
Manifest Destiny
Argentina – Switzerland
Belgium – USA
Some people are a little down on Argentina, who have at times struggled to open up defenses and have looked a bit exposed at the back. I don’t deny those concerns. And it looks like they’ll be without Aguero for at least a game or two, if not the whole tournament. But honestly, something has clearly been wrong with him since the first game. And they have other options who might well be better (at 100%) than the 75% Aguero has been. I also think this creates a bit more tactical flexibility for them. Any time you’ve got ‘undroppable’ players, it has the potential to unbalance your team. Bringing on Lavezzi, for example, would give them a very different look that could be helpful. Obviously, it would be preferable to have a healthy Aguero, but I don’t think this will hurt them that badly.
Which is to say, I’ll stick with Argentina winning this quadrant. And while I’m less confident than I was in my prediction of them as the eventual winners, no one else has quite convinced me to switch my opinion. The Swiss have some very nice players and have looked good in patches. If they could connect their attack and defense better – and not leave themselves so awkwardly exposed when they lose the ball – they could spring a surprise. And while Belgium has excellent players, I actually see them as slightly less risky for Argentina. I just can’t see them devoting the resources to containing Messi and bottling up Di Maria. In fact, of all the teams in this group, I almost think the US might be the one that could bother Argentina the most.
As for Belgium-US, I can’t quite convince myself to pick us to win. But I see that game looking a lot more like the one we played against Portugal and a lot less like the other two. I think the US can challenge for midfield supremacy against Belgium (not win, but challenge) if Beckerman continues to be the beast of a holding midfielder he’s been so far. I feel like the US is most threatened by quality attacking fullbacks and that’s precisely what Belgium lacks. I still think that’s a Belgium win but I there’s a quite decent chance the US could pull through.