Well, I can’t say that I expected Spain to be the first team eliminated from the tournament. But it’s a funny old game, so here we are.
Australia 2 – 3 Netherlands
This was, surprisingly, one of the best games of the tournament. Australia came ready to play and were probably the better team for the first 60 minutes. The Dutch were done in by a bit of complacency to start things off—they stuck with the formation that served them so well against Spain. But the 3-man backline was really not working today. It often meant Cahill tied up three defenders while Leckie bombed forward and cut through them. Their direct passing was aggressive and fast, and tore apart the defense in a way that Spain’s intricate buildup never managed. It was awesome to watch.
So when the Dutch took the lead, it was very much against the run of play and quite depressing—since it seemed like that might shift the tide and deaden the game. Instead, it was precisely the opposite. Australia came back within 45 seconds and scored one of the goals of the tournament. A long ball toward the back post where Cahill waited, turned on it, and lashed it over the keeper’s head. Brilliantly taken.
Things settled down for the Dutch once they were forced to switch the formation due to an injury. And honestly, they should have made the change as early as 20-25 minutes into the game when it was so clear that things weren’t working. Nevertheless, Australia actually took the lead on a pretty soft penalty. It did hit the hand but it’s hard to argue there was ‘intent’ there, and it seems like those usually aren’t given. Still, they converted and held the lead for a glorious four minutes.
In the end, sadly, the gulf in skill won out. Australia had a number of other very fine chances but couldn’t convert, including a wide open goal for Leckie who inexplicably chested the ball weakly enough for the keeper to gather it rather than heading it into the net. And then, the Dutch took the ball immediately upfield, weren’t closed down, and took a long distance shot that fooled the keeper and put them ahead for good. Two mistakes in quick succession from the Australians and they were down 3-2 instead of ahead by the same margin.
After that, things fizzled out a bit. They were clearly exhausted and the adrenaline had faded. Lots of sloppy passing and ill-conceived attempts to dribble through two or three defenders. Still, for 60 or 70 minutes, this was one of the most riveting matches of the tournament. And Australia is out, despite putting in some very fine performances.
Spain 0 – 2 Chile
For the third time in the last four cycles, the holders can’t make it out of the group stages. And a lot of people seem ready to call it a catastrophe. But I have to say: they really weren’t all that bad. This was at the low range of what you’d expect from Spain, World Champions. But it wasn’t dreadful. Yes, they were harried on the ball and didn’t look nearly as sharp as vintage Spain. And yes they conceded two goals. And yes their finishing was bad. But it’s a massive overstatement to say that they fell apart or were soundly beaten. Honestly, I think they were the better team today. Certainly they were better everywhere outside of the 6-yard boxes. And being better than Chile isn’t easy!
With average finishing, they’d have had two, maybe three goals. They had chances galore. Not just the sitter from Busquets. Alonso had several very good ones. Ramos missed one around 85 minutes. Iniesta and Costa, too. And if Casillas hadn’t turned into a pumpkin, they’d have only conceded one. And you know what: if they had won 3-1, with the exact same quality of performance otherwise, everyone would be talking about a fine return to form. In fact, according to the expected goals model, that’s pretty much the result you would expect on average from the chances that each side created in this game.
Now, obviously, Casillas DID make that error and the attackers DID fail to score. So I’m not saying they ought to have won. But finishing and keeper-errors are highly variable and not tremendously predictive. So their elimination was, at the very least, a bit unlucky. And it certainly isn’t proof that they fell apart, or couldn’t play against Chile, or that tiki-taka is truly dead, or whatever other apocalyptic stuff people are saying.
I’m sad to see them out, since I’ve always liked watching them play. But I’m pretty happy that Chile and Netherlands will be advancing. Both are excellent and will bring plenty of skill and excitement to the next round.
Cameroon 0 – 4 Croatia
Croatia looked very good, but this was mostly about Cameroon being terrible. In the first half, they got the ball into some decent attacking areas but just couldn’t do anything with it. So it was no surprise when Croatia took the lead. And then Alex Song made the utterly inexplicable decision to elbow someone right in front of the ref and got himself sent off. Total insanity. And from that point on, there was only ever going to be one result. You have to feel a little bad for Croatia, who has been excellent in both games and is still facing a win-or-go-home contest against Mexico. All the goals they piled in today won’t even help them, since it’s 100% impossible for them to end up the same number of points as Mexico and virtually impossible with Brazil.
Predictions for tomorrow:
- Colombia 0 – 0 Ivory Coast
- Uruguay 2 – 2 England
- Japan 1 – 1 Greece
Not sure why, but I’m calling draws in all three of these. I think Colombia and Ivory Cost will both be cagey, knowing that a draw serves them both reasonably well. I think Uruguay and England will both desperately want to win but will stumble into a draw that neither really wants (though it would certainly be better for England than Uruguay). And while I think Japan is better, I expect Greece to do their thing and nick an irritating goal at the end to pull back a point. I’ve also realized that despite picking Japan to take second in the group, I didn’t pick them to win any games. So, yeah, I don’t know.